The sentiment backdrop is far different in long-term bonds now than it was when rates were rising and we projected a cool down in yields/inflation, and a favorable sentiment backdrop for bonds.
While the 30yr bond’s public optimism index has not yet risen to an extreme…
…the TLT (20+ yr bond fund) has.
All in all we can call the contrary play for a pullback in bond yields over from a sentiment perspective. It remains to be seen whether today’s jump in yields (pullback in bonds) means anything with regard to the still intact intermediate downtrend in yields. Here let’s also remember that the Continuum chart has pulled back to the projected symmetry of the right side inverted shoulder.
With the public now fully aware that the inflation is failing well, you know the drill. We are on watch for it to resume (as one of the three options, the other two being Goldilocks and more intense deflationary signaling).
