Don’t Sleep on the Yield Curve

The yield curve is still out there and it is still steepening. A steepening curve would change the macro from the previous Goldilocks phase (in the US), and whether that means inflationary or deflationary (a steepener can attend both conditions) there would be places to be and places not to be.

To be or not to be? That is the question I don’t yet have answered but will be damn sure to have it answered well before the herd finds out the answers… or even asks the questions, for that matter.

yield curveyield curveHere’s a wider angle view showing the August 2019 low on the tick to inversion, and subsequent rise.

yield curveAnd here is the really wide view. If this is a real steepener, it’s got a long way to go. The 2001 and 2007-2008 steepeners brought negative events aplenty. But they were gathering deflationary pressures. An inflationary steepener might be something different. The ’07-’08 thing was actually a combination, as the early phase was seeing the blow off in commodity bubbles like oil and copper before it morphed deflationary and then killed everything.

yield curve

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