This morning in the futures market the Amigos are still showing a cyclical bias with copper remaining plucky in its rally as the US and China put the trade war relief bid in the bag and yet gold (relatively counter-cyclical) hangs tough and silver (cyclical/counter-cyclical cross dresser) is okay as well. Click the charts for a larger, clearer view.
Gold (daily) spiked to a new high on the war drums and to no surprise is bull flagging downward on that relief. But it’s not getting killed on the double sentiment whammy of US-Iran relief (to whatever degree) and trade war relief (it was in the bag the whole time, folks). Look at the beautiful daily moving average up trends. My correction target had been 1420 to meet the SMA 200, and that marker has now risen to 1435. Per the monthly chart in this post even if my failed target were to become right it would be completely within a bullish situation.
Silver had a best pullback target of around 16.20, where lateral support had been meeting up with the rising SMA 200. That average is now up to 16.53. Regardless of whether silver moves up or down from here it has already done good downside work in Fib’ing well over 50% on the big pullback. Unlike gold it has not approached a new high and it also poked above and failed back below resistance since our last look at the Amigos. As with gold the daily moving averages are trending up (although it would still need to bend the SMA 50 up again with a new rally).
Copper took out the next resistance level since that previous update and even back tested it over the last couple days. The rally lives! And we continue to party on the cyclical global macro along with Wayne and Garth. But – and I hate to keep sounding like a lump on a log – the major trend is still down and copper is in a bounce, not yet a confirmed bull cycle. The next objective is 3 bucks a lb. and if it can take that out we’ll be talking bull for something more than the seasonal thing that began in Q4 2019. Meanwhile, party animals don’t want to hear about it. EVERYBODY’s makin’ coin!!! as the dangerous sentiment builds.
The weekly chart shows the thick resistance zone at 3 and the previous highs above 3.30 that would set free (actually prove a continuation of) a bull market that would be seen in hindsight to have begun in 2016, indicting that the reflation bounce of the last few months is actually something more than that.
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