What Thing Sort of Looks Like the Other Things?

The 30 year yield looks pretty much like the 10 year yield, except for its lagging status. Since 2013 another item has been fairly well correlated with these yields and that item is the Real Estate iShares, IYR. Inversely correlated, that is.

The 2016 yield spike did not dope hammer IYR (send its inverse higher) to the degree one might have expected. Although we are talking decades of secular yield decline here so apparently the market was not convinced. IYR did take a good hit (inverse spike) on the most recent rise in yields but it appears that it needs to be convinced by the 30yr getting out of the barn and joining the 10yr at new highs.

The NFTRH+ post from earlier was indeed about IYR, showing the technical short setup in the nominal ETF’s weekly candlestick chart. But the correlations below would obviously play a fundamental role if the short is to be successful.


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