While using one of my primary educational sources, the boy plunger, Jesse Livermore earlier in the article…
“I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”
…Kevin Muir goes on to make the point that Central Bank interference of epic degrees has distorted the macro so much that nobody can logically deduce the ramifications.
Look at the actions of the Central Banks over the past decade.
Do any strategists really know what a Swiss National Bank balance sheet of 126% of GDP with a big slug of foreign equities means for both the economy and the markets? Or how about a Bank of Japan, the world’s 3rd largest economy, expanding their balance sheet from 35% to 97% of GDP in the space of five years? And can any forecaster say with any confidence what these Central Bankers will do in the future? Will the Federal Reserve actually be able to follow through with their quantitative tightening? Will the Bank of Japan ever stop printing? Do we have any confidence that the ECB is anywhere close to tapering their QE? Sure, we can all guess, but let’s face it – few ever guessed we would be here today, so why does anyone think they will be able to predict where we will be in the future?
No – if someone tells you they know how the current environment ends, show them the door. Central Bankers have changed the game, and we have never been here before. Let me repeat that part. We have never been here before.
Exactly a point I have had in my head for years and have tried to convey along the way. It’s why my market service is so named. It’s Wonderland, not Peter Lynch’s, grandpa’s or even the boy plunger’s market. Not in its stimulative inputs. So how do you quantify its long-term situation?
Full – and highly recommended – article from a sharp observer here:
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