So I guess if I am in the near-term bullish (inflationary) camp I am also in the long-term yields rising camp. Therefore I am inviting the 20+ year Treasury bond bear fund round the campfire to toast marshmallows with my other holdings. The 10 & 30 year yield breakouts have failed, but you may recall that the view included a lot of noise in-week around … Continue reading TBT

ISM Fuels Near-term Inflation View

The headline is 58.7% (full report here) but I have highlighted in green the items that matter. New orders are brisk, along with employment. Inventories, backlogs and prices implying cost pressures. This all supports the near-term plan for an increasing inflationary err, awareness throughout the economy. That’s near-term, which we may well be inclined to enjoy. The bigger plan comes after that when we must … Continue reading ISM Fuels Near-term Inflation View

Inflation Adjusted Dow and Gold

Steve Saville has an interesting post in which he notes the difficulty in coming up with real inflation adjustments by chasing price data around (like CPI). Using a formula of money supply and population data along with a guesstimate on productivity he has come up with long-term inflation adjusted charts of gold, silver, Dow, oil and the GSCI commodity index… An Attempt to Quantify the … Continue reading Inflation Adjusted Dow and Gold