So I guess if I am in the near-term bullish (inflationary) camp I am also in the long-term yields rising camp. Therefore I am inviting the 20+ year Treasury bond bear fund round the campfire to toast marshmallows with my other holdings. The 10 & 30 year yield breakouts have failed, but you may recall that the view included a lot of noise in-week around … Continue reading TBT
The headline is 58.7% (full report here) but I have highlighted in green the items that matter. New orders are brisk, along with employment. Inventories, backlogs and prices implying cost pressures. This all supports the near-term plan for an increasing inflationary err, awareness throughout the economy. That’s near-term, which we may well be inclined to enjoy. The bigger plan comes after that when we must … Continue reading ISM Fuels Near-term Inflation View
Steve Saville has an interesting post in which he notes the difficulty in coming up with real inflation adjustments by chasing price data around (like CPI). Using a formula of money supply and population data along with a guesstimate on productivity he has come up with long-term inflation adjusted charts of gold, silver, Dow, oil and the GSCI commodity index… An Attempt to Quantify the … Continue reading Inflation Adjusted Dow and Gold
