Yields, Banks and the Macro

Everybody knows (or should know) that the leadership of the Pigs to the stock market is directed by long-term interest rates. Here’s the KBE/SPY ratio against the 10yr yield.

kbe/spy

If you believe yields are going to rise in the short-term you are bullish on bank leadership to the stock market, in the near to intermediate-term at least. I would like yields to rise short-term so that I can kick in a logical bigger picture macro game plan for us to operate by. But we’ll let it play out.

Here’s the 10yr yield at resistance, but sporting that bullish pattern we’ve seen variations of in CRB (still in process), silver (played out) and other items over the last few months.

tnx

Here’s the 30yr and its pattern which, if activated would target a 3.2% yield.

tyx

This post is just a little clip of the short-term interest rate picture. But folks, that 3.2% corresponds with the area around the Continuum’s limiter and if it comes about with a still-bullish (read: manic) asset market backdrop I am going to have as clear a macro view as I’ve had in a long while. The word profound may not even be too strong. That’ll be the stuff of a future article and tactically, ongoing NFTRH work.

tyx

So are the bullish patterns on the dailies going to activate? Anyone? Beuller?

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