1st 100 Days Since Election… Bullish, Right?

On the surface, Trump’s 1st 100 days (since election) ‘comp’ well with JFK, as well as Bush 1 and Clinton.  Each of these presidents saw successful markets for the rest of the year.  From data supplied by Bespoke (whose premium service is a good market data source) I created this table showing the S&P 500’s ‘1st 100 days since election’ percentage, the largest decline from a closing high, the next 100 days and the rest of the year (ROY).

Bullish, right?  JKF, Bush 1 and to a lesser degree, Clinton would say so.

presidential 1st 100

But now we layer in some other data points.  I have added JFK and Bush 1 to this chart that comes by way of Steve Saville and Goldchartsrus.com, to reflect a ripple in the seamlessly happy story.

djia

JFK, Bush 1 and Clinton each started their terms from more favorable risk setups, at least according to this chart’s premise.  Trump is sticking out like a sore thumb, up there with Bush 2 and Hoover.  Hoover went on to oversee the euphoria of the 1929 peak before disaster struck, so I suppose the Trump market could get an incredible upside blow off.  Not currently favored, but possible.  If that were to happen, expect the ensuing bear to take the form of a crash.

Taking it a step further, check out this graph (courtesy of Factset), which was originally reviewed in NFTRH 420 two days before the election.  What’s this?  The first elected year under a new republican taking over for a democrat has on average proven to be negative for the S&P 500.  A casual review of the first graphic above shows that condition to be absolutely true.  This year, Obama handed off a still bull trending market to Trump.

political continuity

Keeping talk of measured targets (SPX 2410 for example) and sentiment (over bullish but perhaps not yet bull-killer extreme) out of it, just the raw expanded data (beyond the JFK and Bush 1 ‘comps’) alone continue to advise caution for the time when revelers realize the punch has gone stale (or worse, which I’ll leave to your imagination) and profit takers have long-since left the party, leaving them holding this bag… of hard data.

The above tells me to keep doing what I am doing; which is slowly and patiently taking profits, churning new opportunities as they present, gently raising cash and above all looking at that big, dumb herd from a separate vantage point.  Folks, these are the ones who were bearish at the depths of Brexit and heading into the US election.  This is how markets work.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 30-45 page weekly report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Also, you can follow via Twitter @BiiwiiNFTRH, StockTwits, RSS or sign up to receive posts directly by email (right sidebar).