Current State of US Yields & Bonds

The 30 year yield remains over bought (i.e. long-term bonds are very over sold) on the hysteria, and is a little red.


The 10 year is still at its highs and very over bought.


The 20+ year iShares Treasury bond fund is deeply over sold and I own it (looking for a bounce) as a risk ‘off’ balance to longs (I took a loss on hedged Europe and a gain on the Transports today, along with a few well earned profits elsewhere), that pays higher income while it’s wallowing.


The 30yr-5yr spread, which I use as a real time approximation of the yield curve, is dropping but still in its post-August uptrend as long as it holds the SMA 50 area.

30 year and 5 year yields

There is a little something coming off of the very over bought ‘inflation expectations gauge, the TIP-TLT ratio.

tip-tlt ratio

All in all it continues to look like recent themes, driven home hard by the unexpected Trump hysteria, can continue to reverse for a counter trend move at least.

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