tip-tlt ratio

Trumped Markets

I felt a little lonely spotlighting Treasury bond yields all those weeks ago, while today’s momo market players were bearish on stocks and owning Treasury bonds in risk ‘off’ mode.  Now they are newly invigorated and touting the new bond bear while getting revved up to party.  Hey revelers, just keep your eye on 3.4%, AKA the Continuum’s limiter.  We’re at 2.9% now.

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A previous post showed the Vampire Squid (GS, which I sold today) and the rest of the Pigs are flying.  It’s Trump to the rescue!  But over in tech land, it’s Trump standing up for the little guy as apparently the market thinks he is going to repatriate the assembly jobs most Americans wouldn’t do anyway for wages they wouldn’t work for, back to this country.  I’ve got news for you…

Anyway, yields are continuing to rise and the next big macro event is when the Fed pretends that it has a decision to make on the Fed Funds rate.  Here’s our handy TIP-TLT / FOMC combo.

tip-tlt ratio

Finally, a few weeks ago I saw a genius (who told us that HUI was definitely going to plunge far below 100, HUI is definitely in a major new bull market and most recently, Treasury Bonds were definitely going to find imminent support.  After reading his crap I created this chart just to remind myself not to pay heed to would-be gurus spouting definitelies.  Sorry sir, the long bond has crashed the intermediate-term moving average and could well hit the lower one (a sort of inverse of the Continuum’s monthly EMA 100).  But the Treasury bond bull is not over until 30 year yield blasts above 3.4%.

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