SPX: Because… REASONS!!

As a market manager I stay calm about it and use it to the best of my ability.  As a human I get annoyed by it and what it does…

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Healthcare Almost to Target

Here's the XLV weekly chart again.  It's closer still to the top channel line. The daily view is kissing the SMA 200. I sold XLV but still hold my fair…

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NFTRH; Another ‘what if?’

On a similar theme to the earlier update whereby the long bond is seeing extreme relative short interest by Commercial traders, let’s compare the 30 year vs. the 2 year.

The 30 year shows a big build up in net shorts by the Commercial Hedgers.


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NFTRH; A ‘what if?’ Exercise

Because I want to look around as many corners as possible (without donning the tin foil hat), I had a thought that is at odds with the view that the bear phase will resume/continue.  It is also at odds with a bullish view of gold for the near-term.

So please consider it a mental exercise, the likes of which can be healthy if we keep these things in perspective and in their proper place in the probabilities tool box.


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Broad US Stock Market

Here is the multi-index weekly chart.  Most are above former resistance but... where are higher highs?  Show me higher highs, Jerry.

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nftrh plus

NFTRH+; Russell 2000 Short Setup

Here is the (weekly) Russell 2000 chart we used in 2015 to show that a moving average cross and a similar looking pattern have occurred that resulted in severe downside in 2008.  I think we can disqualify the 2011 ‘comp’ because that moving average cross was quickly reversed and the current one, despite the big rally, is nowhere near being undone.


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