Priority Update, Important Semi Data & Market Notes

[edit] I neglected to include the link and this quote…

“Year-to-date, the bookings and billings reported in the SEMI North American equipment book-to-bill report indicate a solid year for the industry,” said SEMI president and CEO Denny McGuirk. “The outlook for the remainder of the year is somewhat clouded, but we see investments in 3D NAND and advanced packaging as drivers.”

Folks, we have anticipated the bearish stock market situation about as well I think, as an entity that does not make predictions can.  The same can be said for the ‘bounce’ in the gold sector.  I look forward to reviewing it all in NFTRH 357.

Right now however, I want to show you something that is at odds with the bearish hysterics in the Semiconductor sector as well as the economy.  The just-released Semi Equipment sector book-to-bill ratio climbed to 1.01 and more importantly, this came about as a function of strong bookings and strong billings.  I don’t invent the data, I just report it.

July’s reading was the best yet when taking all 3 categories together.

b2b

We appear to be in a realm of market sentiment dynamics and with prices now breaking down, that is the director of events, not a fundamental picture like the above.

What I think will happen after the correction plays out however, is that a strong rebound rally will take place.  Whether that is in late August or sometime in September remains to be seen.

The gold sector is getting a big bid and it sure does feel as though our preferred macro fundamental backdrop is engaging.  But as always, we are going to go one step at a time.  The sector is generally at its bounce targets for the short-term.

Again, I look forward to quantifying some things in next week’s report, but wanted to get the Semi data in front of you for your careful consideration.  This was the bull canary in the coal mine in January 2013.  It was still chirping in July, as improbable as that seems.