‘Jobs’ Friday (Guessing +235,000)

With the soft ADP the other day and other signs of economic flattening, some people may be looking for a weak Payrolls report tomorrow.  I am going to take a guess for the second time [1] and call +235,000 vs. the expected +220,000.

Why?  Because the US dollar is strong and the services sectors are doing the heavy lifting as this graphic associated with the last Payrolls release (+223,000) from NFTRH 350 by way of FloatingPath (mark-ups mine) makes clear.  The strong US dollar wears away at the industrial sectors, which can be an early indication of economic deceleration, but Fortress America consumes if it does nothing else [2] and a stronger Uncle Buck makes a stronger consumer of services.

The US is in effect servicing itself now.  This is the back end of the economy, not the front end that was indicated in early 2013, first in the Semi Equipment segment and then on through manufacturing.

payrolls.sectors

Here is the current breakdown (July) of the ISM Services components with the most relevant items highlighted, including employment.

ism.nmi

[1] My first attempt at playing Swami was off by a mere 23k as ‘Jobs’ firmed to slightly better than my expectations in April after a terrible +126k in March.  I am probably going to the well once too often, but it’s fun.

[2] Well, it does do something else, it consumes alright and it does so on ever expanding debt.  So that something else is debt.  Fortress America is adept at creating, temporarily sustaining, and using debt for consumption.