NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

Reminder:  ETF updates are presented as a snapshot to current status only.  More in depth work is done in NFTRH.

GLD failed support at the moving averages (126) and now looks for support at 122.  This zone has been favored due to an abundance of lateral support.  This is also critical support (120-122)  to the bigger picture bullish case.  The short term view is bearish, but if yield spreads play ball, we would be looking for positive divergences to this bearish situation and looking ahead to a resumed bullish intermediate picture.


SLV failed the top of the thick support zone and has turned it into resistance.  The green line is critical support to the bull case.  If the intermediate bullish precious metals view resumes, this support would prove to have been a significant buying opportunity.


GDX has been bearish since it reversed off the Ukraine/Crimea hype.  It then lost support in the 24’s, which inflicted technical damage.  As speculated upon in NFTRH 284, the bounce attempt may be just that, a bounce and not a recovery.  That looks like a bear flag.  Traders sold, hedgers hedged and holders held with the expectation of this corrective activity.  It is now time to marry fundamentals (if they recover) with technicals (if support holds) in search of buying opportunity.


GDXJ is and has been bearish, but shows the critical support at around 35 (+/-).


SIL, like the other precious metals ETFs must prove that it is not in a bear flag (given the bearish short term stance).  We had originally anticipated the 12.50 area as a buying opportunity and it is holding that support thus far.  But given the bearish events since the last update, we have added another support level for reference.  Side note:  SLW was added to my brokerage portfolio last week in accordance with current support.  But with the potential for a final dip in silver, the support just below 12 should be watched as critical.


DBC is still between support and resistance.  The only change to this chart over the last 2 weeks is that a red down trigger arrow has been removed from the MACD.  DBC is bullish above the moving average cluster.


DBA is another unchanged chart.  It’s still over bought, it’s still MACD triggered down and it’s still bullish but in need of a cool down period.  Could it be making a secondary high now?


UNG is another unchanged chart except for MACD going red.  Yet MACD has a sneaky bullish look to it with UNG still above the breakout line.  If you’re a NatGas bull for fundamental reasons (I claim no authority there), then this would be a buy op.


USO got above resistance and is now trying to turn it to support.  It’s bullish.


URA is another untouched chart from 2 weeks ago.  All that has happened is that URA came to the first projected support level and I added it back at that point.  The second support below 16.50 may be the ‘stop loss’ level on that.


TLT is another untouched chart.  It is just below resistance but generally bullish above the moving averages.


SPY… you guessed it, the chart is unchanged and it is still bullish.


SMH is the same, and bullish.


EZU turned former resistance to new support and triggered MACD up.  Bullish.


EEM is now bullish for a strong bounce at least per updates on Emerging Markets and Asia last week.  Also notable that EEM is leading SPY during this phase.  We’ll track that in NFTRH going forward.


FXI  must break above noted resistance and make a higher high to February in order to make a bullish signal.  Volume has had conviction thus far.


Bottom Line

  • Precious metals are short term bearish.  The correction is thus far as expected.  Gold 1270, Silver low-mid 19’s and HUI 215(ish) are important support areas on daily closing basis.  We are also in a mode where we want to gauge fundamentals right along with techncials, because the sector is close to final technical parameter points and the line between ‘buying opportunity’ (as expected) and ‘extreme risk management’ is now very thin.  For now, we remain bullish on an intermediate basis.
  • Commodities are overall leaning to the bullish side.  Here we also noted that the commodity currencies of Australia and Canada have started to bounce as well.
  • Stock?  Bullish everywhere.  But in this most recent phase global and emerging look better than US.