With silver heading to a break down or break out decision in the coming weeks and with its price down hard today, those bullish on silver and looking for buying opportunity could be buying today. It is hard to buy silver now, and that is probably the point.
Along with the highly publicized loss of leadership from big tech, the US stock market is now in danger of losing another, and possibly more important leader, the piggies or banking sector.
While the weekly chart of BKX has not yet broken down, it is very close to doing so after sporting a negative RSI divergence for the better part of the last year. We should not jump the gun with bearish scenarios, but as always we want to be among those looking forward and ready, just like in 2007, which was the last time BKX-SPX began to roll over in earnest.
GDX held neckline support after spiking below the bear flag’s origin point and is filling the downside gap off of the bear flag breakdown. If this rebound is more than a fleeting thing it will get through the SMA 200 (red) and eventually make a higher high above the early April bear flag top.
There is a problem with biiwii.com’s server this morning and I was unable to do the Wednesday morning Key ETF update without constant interruptions. In its place this week we’ll simply go with a general update by email.
HUI has declined to 215 and made a marginal lower low from the start of the bear flag in the 216’s. We had been anticipating 210 as the critical support to a bottoming scenario. So, given the proclivity of this sector to test limits, let’s keep that alive.
Ukraine war hype, China demand drop, GOFO mysteries… these are the short term noise inputs on the gold sector.
US Treasury bond yield spreads, gold vs. commodities (i.e. the ‘real’ price of gold), gold vs. the stock market… these are some of the fundamental considerations that actually matter and they have taken a hit since January.
It is easy to say ‘I am bullish in the big picture’ (measured in years) but it is not so easy to actively manage in the smaller pictures (measured in days, weeks and months) with all of the above noise inputs and more bombarding the poor individual player.
We use shorter term charts to manage the shorter time frames. Daily charts have most recently indicated a bearish set up as bear flags formed across the precious metals complex (with the exception of silver, which never got going to begin with) last week. Weekly charts continue to indicate that an extended and oh so grinding bottom may be forming, but that includes the potential for ups and downs, also known as volatility.
There is also a lot of noise lately in the stock market. The US stock bull celebrated its 5th birthday last month. The last 2 cycles (the manic phase of the secular bull ended 2000 and the cyclical bull ended 2007) were each approximately 5 years long. Today let’s retreat to the calm of the long term monthly charts and get a snapshot of the big picture.
The S&P 500 has a measured target of around 2190 that we have had open as a possibility since the big breakout occurred in early 2013. A measured target is just that, a measurement; simple math. It is not a directive and therefore 2190 is not hype, it is just a possibility.
A reminder that ETF charts are more a snapshot to current status than comprehensive TA. Also, to save time the MACD (which is usually noted as green (positive) or red (negative) will be colored blue in ETF updates going forward. The relevant point to the color coding is whether MACD is above or below zero. Also, RSI is added and the charts have a new format.
GLD broke down from an unimpressive short term uptrend (low relative ‘up’ volume), keeping the long anticipated support zone in play. That support zone is quite important. GLD is neutral-bearish, but with a potentially bullish pattern.
Was that the bounce? If it was, my longs are not going to do well and will probably stop out shortly. But in the event that the bulls are just getting themselves together and will put on an upward grind this week (as in a bear flag), a would-be bull flag setup is shown below on bear fund SPXS.