Update; Key ETF Charts

A reminder that ETF charts are more a snapshot to current status than comprehensive TA.  Also, to save time the MACD (which is usually noted as green (positive) or red (negative) will be colored blue in ETF updates going forward.  The relevant point to the color coding is whether MACD is above or below zero.  Also, RSI is added and the charts have a new format.

GLD broke down from an unimpressive short term uptrend (low relative ‘up’ volume), keeping the long anticipated support zone in play.  That support zone is quite important.  GLD is neutral-bearish, but with a potentially bullish pattern.


SLV looks set to test its bear market lows.  This test will be very important.  Bearish, pending bottom re-test.


GDX is at support #1 after the bear flag breakdown.  If we are right about flag breaks declining lower than their start point GDX would drop to support #2 at least.  Bearish.


GDXJ is in the same boat as GDX.


SIL is similar status to GDX and GDXJ.


DBC is bullish above noted support and the moving average convergence.


DBA is either double topping or preparing to break resistance.  Volume as declined throughout this short term rise and as MACD and RSI point out, momentum is not there.  It will either show up and push DBA upward or it will make a short term correction.


USO is bullish and just below resistance.  It needs to make a higher high to keep the bullishness going.  Proximity from moving averages and RSI show USO starting to get a little over bought.


URA has been correcting the big up spike for 1.5 months now.  It is at a valid support level, but there is another in the low 15’s.  With a series of higher highs and higher lows still intact, URA still looks corrective rather than terminal.  15 determines whether a lower low is made or not.


UNG remains above the long term breakout and is bullish.  It has worked off over bought readings that were too far above the MA 50’s.


TLT is bullish above support, but a bit over bought with the recent market mini hysteria.  A test of this support would be important not only for TLT, but in gauging any stock market bounce for failure or continuation.  A bullish TLT can be considered one component of a risk ‘OFF’ atmosphere.


SPY bounced as expected.  It is at distinct resistance.  If this is cleared SPY could put on a test of its highs.  The chart is however, at this snapshot in time, bearish.  Still we expect a continued bounce due to…


QQQ has been added because tech is the place we are getting signals for more bounce potential.  Personally, I went triple long and shorted leveraged bear fund QID for this bounce potential.  With both the COMP and NDX touching below the February lows, we get an inkling that more downside could come after a week or three of market rally.  The first step for QQQ is to touch the top wedge line.  Then, if the bounce has enough power, we’d look for resistance at the 50 day moving averages.  All of this assumes the bulls are able to bottle yesterday’s new found courage and mount a continued rally as expected.


SMH held the ’10 year support’ line, which meant only everything to market bulls.  SMH is above the 50 day MA’s, which is good.  Note that both SIMG and PMCS are below their 50’s and SIMO shook me out on a hard test below its 50.  I got squirrelly on these and took a couple tiny profits and a loss, deciding to with my strength, which is the indexes, not individual stocks (exception being cancer therapy spec OMED, which is a pet of mine).  I may try other stocks, but riding market index swings takes out all the company-specific stuff, and I like that.


EZU is still mostly bullish, but obviously needs to hold the MA 50’s and bounce from here or a turn to bearish would come fairly quickly.


EEM was halted right around the equivalent of the big picture monthly trend line we have been reviewing in NFTRH on the MSEMF chart.  US stocks are preferred for a short term bounce potential.  On the shorter time frame, this looks normal with the moving average support zone a ‘buy’ point for those fundamentally bullish the EM’s and looking for entry.  Fundamentals are beyond the scope of this update.


FXI does not look good with its drop below support (now resistance again) on volume.


Bottom Line

  • Precious Metals are bearish.  We will look for bottom potential, fundamental turnaround potential and all the other things that go along with this.  But the daily charts as they stand now are bearish.  Watch silver’s bottom test.
  • Commodities are a mixed bag, but the bag is generally bullish and apparently heavily influenced by the Agriculturals.
  • Due to the intensity of the quick decline, US markets look good for their bounce potential.  Watching big tech (QQQ) and semiconductors (SMH) in this regard.  The story is still forming on US stocks, but the case for an important top of some kind improved over the last couple of weeks.  The Semiconductors’ status above the 10 year breakout line however, keeps us tempered on that and subject to incoming information.  US is preferred over global on the very short term.