globe

Psst, be vewy quiet; TSX-V attempts a move…

TSX-V has been a negative divergence to the inflation trades, but… You see, da ‘V’ has a bunch of cow pastures and barren holes along with a few nice prospects up there to the great white north. It has been negatively diverging the inflation trades for over a year now, but was an important indicator that we used in 2020 to confirm the inflation trades. … Continue reading Psst, be vewy quiet; TSX-V attempts a move…

NFTRH+; updating the risk ‘on’ speculative & ‘inflation trade’ environment

Junk bonds (HYG) have held above the 50 day average, indicating that risk is still ‘on’. Junk/Investment Grade (LQD) has recovered strongly and is flipping positive as well. Junk/Treasury (20+ & 7-10yr) is also recovering. The above are not signs of an impending bear market or even a major correction in process. Moving to the more inflation-sensitive end of the speculative macro the TSX-V (CDNX) … Continue reading NFTRH+; updating the risk ‘on’ speculative & ‘inflation trade’ environment

Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity

What Has Been

A solid 2.5 years of risk management (to varying degrees) has been required of precious metals investors.  It was most intensely required after the announcement of QE3, when the net commercial short position in silver began a relentless march toward a very bearish alignment in late 2012 and then the HUI Gold Bugs index lost an important support level at around 460.  Here is the chart of silver with a heavy commercial net short position from NFTRH 215, dated 12.2.12:

Continue reading “Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity”