In the midst of work uncovering a target for the US dollar that will surprise many if it comes about, of taking a hard look at the messages of long-term Treasury yields and the yield curve, defining potential macro outcomes (inflation, Goldilocks or deflation) based on these indications and planning strategy accordingly, NFTRH 662 got a little out there with a discussion of the mindset … Continue reading The Matrix of Market Psychology
It must be a gold bull market, because… Certain suspects are coming out of the woodwork to scare the living crap out of gullible people. I’ll spare you the long version, but simply remind you that I know of what I speak when it comes to falling under the sway of cult leaders (even if it only felt like a cult, as opposed to actively … Continue reading It must be a Gold bull market, because…
After being asked on Twitter for thoughts on the article linked below… The two main things I remember about King World News are that its interviewer has a voice that is remarkably similar to Dennis Miller’s and that the headlines and articles over there scare the crap out of people. It is not only the major media that harvest eyeballs. This Collapse Will Be A … Continue reading KWN: Still Harvesting Fearful Eyeballs
 Maybe all it took was this article and a little help from a “startling retail sales plunge” to turn the market right at resistance. Maybe? Note: This is not market analysis. This is a person writing words and inserting some funny pictures. It is a product of said person’s view of psychology and the modern market. First off, my honest self-evaluation: I would be … Continue reading Manage Your Psych Profile [w/ edit]
…you get what you asked for. The site got heavy traffic yesterday from the gold websites with one in particular, 321gold, linking directly. That is fine, but the post was not analysis so much as sermonizing, which I try to keep way on the back burner but somehow let see the light of day this week. I risk making something of a caricature of myself … Continue reading Write a Few Words on the Gold Sector and…
The notion that there is art involved in interpreting the economy and financial markets is probably heresy to many market participants and probably 99.9% of economists (that .1% guy being the one who’s excluded from the meetings and egghead social gatherings), whether they be right or left leaning (I always find it entertaining to hear right wing and left wing economists duke it out, as … Continue reading Effective Market Management: Art & Science
In the current political climate herds are running every which way. There is the anti-Trump herd, the pro-Trump herd, the liberal herd, the conservative herd, the CNBC herd, the mainstream financial services industry herd, the Armstrong herd, the gold bug herd… and there are all those ideologies in play. But robotic thinking, unless it is in service to profitable trades like this one on an … Continue reading Moving Targets: Investors Need to Discriminate!
2016 was the year I finally decided to codify my niche as a psychology-focused market contrarian, putting the Alice, Red Queen and Rabbit components of NFTRH’s logo right there on my inner forearm, forever. This is because I love the imagery and themes of NFTRH’s guiding metaphorical story, Alice in Wonderland, and because the weird technical tools I use are generally in service to one … Continue reading 2016: A Year for Contrarians; 2017 Shaping Up That Way as Well
There is something about this time of year that really annoys me. What is that you ask? Well, it is the chronic need for so many market commentators to try to be the next Prechter or Russell (circa early 1980’s), falling all over themselves to make the next big, career-making call. You may know that I like Prechter and am in awe of the guy’s … Continue reading Ritholtz Nails It; Forecasts Are Marketing Gimmicks
I have not gone off the deep end and joined the “community” of boosters, promoters, pompom waving cheering squads and general cult figures who you can just tell not only want you to adore gold, but in some cases need you to act on your adoration and buy gold or gold stocks. Read into that what you will, but the history of investors burned by … Continue reading The Gold Manipulators Not Only Will Be Punished, They Have Been Punished
Seriously, the longer I do this more intolerant I become with the whole financial media/services/advice complex. Stoopid MSM headlines this morning… Dollar holds gains as investors set their watches for jobs data (ooh, the tension mounts) Markets counting down to big Jobs Friday (T-minus… to BIG Jobs) Gold loses shine as Fed feelings lift dollar (blah blah blah…) European stocks hemmed in with ECB minutes … Continue reading Read and Listen to the Media, be a Day Late and a Lot of Dollars Short
Back on April 1 I wrote an article titled Deprogram Yourself. I was fed up with both promoters and robotic followers in the financial markets. All markets have promotions and those who lap up said promotions, but the gold “community” of honest money advocates (code for a casino patron who thinks he is more righteous than other casino patrons) is the most dogged and belligerent of them all. Into this mix come the promoters, gurus, pitch men (and women) and con artists to ply their trade, always tugging at the emotions of all too human financial content consumers.
I have had a lot of fun with the centralized policy making over the years. Recall the Outer Limits theme? There is nothing wrong with your television set. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a … Continue reading G7 (and Fed), Right on Cue
In the past I have come up with article titles and terms like Cyprus, Cyprus… CYPRUS!!!, Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Theater, Armageddon ’08, Full Frontal Inflation ’09 and who knows how many other little words and jingles in order to describe mass mania. I don’t mean to discount the seriousness of what is in play underneath – in my opinion a pathetic system degrading over many … Continue reading Brexit!