Bank sector negatively diverges long-term yields As long-term yields rise to tick the 2.5% to 2.7% target zone on the 30yr, the Bank sector seems to have other ideas. Like maybe yields are not going to keep rising. Like maybe there is a reason why the Fed is so hesitant to make like a hawk. Nominal KBE is lame and its ratio to the broad … Continue reading The Pigs are not leading yields
With the 30yr yield breaking upward today (daily chart)… …let’s review the original theme (back in play after a little macro whipsaw), which was to build a right side shoulder on the 30yr yield ‘Continuum’ (monthly chart) and then evaluate the inflation trades if/as the shoulder resolves upward to the limiting moving averages. Option A: EMA 100 & 120 limiters hold once again as they … Continue reading NFTRH+; clarity on where the macro is headed, near/intermediate-term
I used the last bounce to unload one position in TBT at a very good profit, while my existing position – part of my home made curve steepener with short-term T bond fund SHY – resumed bleeding red. So with a wimpy preamble that it’s here to provide half of a strategic relationship and not make a profit… I’d still like to make a profit! … Continue reading T Bond Short Bottoming Again?
The 10 year yield is in a short-term bounce pattern, which is completely unsurprising as it goes in positive correlation with stocks on their relief bounce from the risk ‘off’ decline in yields. The 30 year yield is further along, having broken above a S/T resistance area (3.5%) yesterday. Of course, the longer-term view is that of our Continuum, which will decide what the bigger … Continue reading Long-term Treasury Yields on the Move