Yield Curve Today
Pardon the previous edition of this post. I imagined that the curve was rising, but it is in fact dropping a bit today as the market flies around post-ISM. As…
Comments Off on Yield Curve Today
January 2, 2015
Yield Curve Today
The beaten to a pulp yield curve has been quietly rising the last few days. Here is today's view of a gentle rise as nominal yields on all durations decline. …
Comments Off on Yield Curve Today
December 31, 2014
Yield Curve (so far) Today
Here is the state of the US Yield Curve during a pre-open with deflation in the air and global markets upset. The curve is rising this morning as yields drop. …
Comments Off on Yield Curve (so far) Today
December 9, 2014
Yield Spreads Still Declining
Today the 10, 5 & 2 is dropping again as yields on the long end decline and the short end rises. Below is the state of the 10 vs. 2…
Comments Off on Yield Spreads Still Declining
December 8, 2014
Yield Curve Today
As surmised in the subscriber update posted just after the 'Jobs' report, jitters about interest rate hikes are bubbling to the surface in the T bond market. This may also…
Comments Off on Yield Curve Today
December 5, 2014
Yield Curve Today
The 10-5-2 spread is rising with nominal yields reversing to up. A little risk off'y to go with junk bonds, which are quite risk off'y. For reference, here is the…
Comments Off on Yield Curve Today
December 1, 2014
Yield Curve Today
Yields spreads from 10 to 5 to 2 years are declining, while nominal yields rise. In other words, there is nothing risk OFF'ish about this in the least and liquidity…
Comments Off on Yield Curve Today
November 3, 2014
ZIRP Gains More Attention
We have been talking about how there had been no bubble in US stocks and how the economy is doing just fine. We have also been talking about how the bubble is in policy and that the economy and stock bull market have been created – yes, like Frankenstein’s monster once again – out of this policy bubble.
Enter economist Joseph LaVorgna of Deutche Bank… Fed needs to start raising rates, top forecaster says.
Will wonders never cease? As you may know, I read the financial MSM to get a feel for what the casual market participant is reading, what the majority is being told is the truth. Usually it is some combo of self-promoters and agenda (sometimes political) driven bulls and bears.
Comments Off on ZIRP Gains More Attention
June 12, 2014
NFTRH Update, Quick Market Roundup…
Data came in weaker this morning with a home sales drop of 3.3% in February. The ‘all one market’ market is cheering to banish the evil spirits released by Janet Yellen last week. Those would be the rising short term interest rate spirits and they are key to our fundamentals.
Comments Off on NFTRH Update, Quick Market Roundup…
March 25, 2014
NFTRH Update, HUI & Interest Rates
[edit] Adding an alternative view of HUI
The good news is HUI remains on the plan for a potential Inverted Head & Shoulders bottom.
Comments Off on NFTRH Update, HUI & Interest Rates
March 24, 2014
ZIRP Up Next?
Everyone expects Janet Yellen to be a rolling over, inflationist stooge just like they did Ben Bernanke. Bernanke came on board after Alan Greenspan had taken the Fed Funds rate up to around 5% if I remember correctly. Inflationists and gold bugs thought they had it in the bag when ‘Helicopter Ben’ assumed control.
Indeed, Bernanke did what he was supposed to do (per the ‘Helicopter ‘Ben’ script) as systemic stresses began to gather in 2007, addressing that pesky Funds rate, culminating in December, 2008’s official ZIRP (zero interest rate policy). Here again is the chart showing the S&P 500’s ‘Hump #3’ attended by this most beneficial monetary policy.
As noted again and again, the much trumpeted ‘taper’ of QE is not only not a negative for the economy, we have made a strong case that its mechanics are actually a positive, in the near term at least. But putting ZIRP on the table would be a whole different ball of wax.
Comments Off on ZIRP Up Next?
March 20, 2014
Enjoy the Punch Holiday Revelers
Party goers are gathered around the punch bowl as expected after the FOMC’s token move on QE. Jeff Lacker is jawboning additional tapers in $10b chunks and all seems right, except… the ‘continuum’ (AKA the 100 month EMA on the 30 year bond yield chart).
Let me ask you Beuller, what happened at the red arrow in 2000? What happened after the red arrow in 2007? What happened after the plunge in 2008? What happened after the red arrow in 2011? What happened after the most recent bottom in 2012? The answers are 1) the end of a secular bull market in stocks, 2) the end of the last cyclical bull market in stocks, 3) the birth of the current cyclical bull market in stocks, 4) the end of the big cyclical commodities rally and 5) the launch of this most powerful leg of the cyclical stock bull market.
Comments Off on Enjoy the Punch Holiday Revelers
December 23, 2013
Raghuram Rajan’s Sneaking Out the Door (Raises Interest Rates)
A good article (thanks Tom) about a good man trying to get out ahead of a rising interest rate world; India’s head of the RBI, who is raising interest rates while the US Fed keeps things stable for the rest of the world to start deleveraging. Is this really what is in play, a world setting up to clean up its debts and inflationary excesses?
Comments Off on Raghuram Rajan’s Sneaking Out the Door (Raises Interest Rates)
September 24, 2013
The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation
In the current policy and media stoked market environment, anything is possible. It’s the wonderful, magical world of hands-on policy making. 5 years after the financial crisis, but still not enjoying a ramping economy like the good old (and long gone) days of the last great secular bull market (RIP 2000)? Just sit back, relax and let the man in charge control the image.
Comments Off on The Fed’s Great Adventure in Inflation
September 20, 2013