...it will only matter when it matters. Playing it straight, the speculative interests (big net long increase this week) are right as they always are while the current trend is…
Referencing one of our main themes for the last half a year, the case for the gold sector is supported by the case for economic deceleration. It is not supported by inflation, as in the recent bounce in inflation expectations as the US dollar declined.
The gold sector often rises with inflation expectations as silver out performs gold and so do commodities. But the gold sector’s fundamentals are fed by counter-cyclical activity and today’s payrolls report was right in line with that. In the ‘pullback’ update on Wednesday we also noted that the ‘gold ratio’ macro indicators remained positive as well…
What has been going on since mid-February is a burst of the 'inflation trade' as evidenced by silver's leadership in the precious metals sector. This opened the barn door for…
I am not saying this is the top in the silver-gold ratio (SLV-GLD), but I am saying that if this is the top (for this phase) then commodities and the…
Below is the first segment of this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 393: The Fed has been trying to promote inflation. That is not the guy…
With reference to the previous posts about about weak economic data, the fundamentals for gold are getting a boost in this data. Durable Goods, Machine Tools and Consumer Confidence have all decelerated. The risk of the Fed being sensitive to inflation may have been reduced here in favor of not wanting to tank the markets.
We talk a lot about FOMC stuff, inflation stuff and silver stuff. At 40 easy to read pages (w/ lots of graphical data backing up the themes) NFTRH 392, the…
On March 4 we reviewed the technical reasons why the gold sector was launching as opposed to blowing off. This, after articles began appearing calling the rise to that point…
Very simply, the weekly moving average that contained silver through its bear market has been broken to the upside. That is another booster of our assertion from earlier in the…
A new subscriber had a question as to the point of yesterday’s update about the Silver-Gold ratio and so I want to try to be clearer for other newer subscribers. The statement in question was “But until the Silver-Gold ratio breaks out, it has not broken out.”
I like a party as much as the next guy, but here is a turd in the punch bowl just to make sure we are balanced and partying within bounds. The top panel is the Silver-Gold ratio (SLV-GLD) and the lower is the Commodity sector ETF.
In US pre-market silver is +2.47% and gold is +.72% at 7:00 Eastern. The silver-gold ratio closed like this yesterday, still above the daily SMA 200.
This week we abbreviated to a review of limit and/or trend change points in several markets, further discussion of inflation and what needs to be in place to call an…
Note: A reminder that I will mostly be away from the markets on Thursday and Friday. This update is an extensive review of where markets stand now. We will update the situation on Sunday with an abbreviated NFTRH 391.
Precious Metals
HUI made it to the resistance line and the projected zone of 202 to 211 off the consolidation triangle (ref. daily chart reviewed in this update last week). From the ‘bottom line’ of that update: “Watch the gold miners. A breakout (on a weekly close) here would signal a new leg to an initial target of 211.”