This monthly chart of the Euro STOXX 50 failed to make a higher high in 2017 and has held below trend lines from 2000 and 2007; two very important global market junctures indeed. It appears now to have held within a massive Symmetrical Triangle and a failure to bust the Triangle and make a new high would imply a drop to the lower Triangle line, … Continue reading European STOXX 50 in Some Trouble
A simple update noting that like Japan before it, Europe is now making a bullish move vs. the S&P 500. Here is the daily chart of the Euro-hedged HEZU vs. SPY. I made good on what I’d speculated in NFTRH 471 and added HEZU yesterday. The key here is to stay above the (black) SMA 200. If that happens, this would likely eventually turn the … Continue reading NFTRH; Europe vs. US
The Euro is just a basket case right now. Daily chart… But I am not interested in the Euro so much as I am in ways to benefit from its weakness. I would like to see the Euro hedged HEDJ use the weekly chart’s EMA 70 as support, as it did at key junctures during the bull phase that blew out in 2015. It also … Continue reading Euro & Yen Continue Down the Bear Path
In the age of currency degradation, devaluation and manipulation it makes sense. A couple weeks ago we (NFTRH+) made a bullish projection on Yen-hedged Japanese stocks and now it is time to do the same with Europe. We do this one publicly and skip the usual buy, sell, stop loss formalities. First, the currency in question. Lame Euro? , Euro weekly is on the verge … Continue reading Euro Down, Europe Up (Just Like a Whack-a-Mole)
Add the US dollar to the list of items that are in question and on the move. The green circles show the higher highs and higher lows made by USD since the May low. In June it spiked down, tested that low and then shot higher.
NFTRH+ posts are not calls to action; they are ideas for careful consideration to go along with your own research and views. In this case that goes double, as the Greece/Euro drama plays out well for our projected trade in HEDJ. But there is no need to jump on it right away; not with herds falling all over themselves to get back out after taking the bullish promotions in the spring.
Just a quick note for those who only follow NFTRH.com… There is a post at Biiwii highlighting the basics of two interim macro plays; the prospective second phase of the anti-USD bounce in inflation expectations and associated assets and the correction and proposed buying opportunity in European stocks (currency hedged). Anti-USD & Euro QE ‘Me Too!’ Trades Updated Continue reading Anti-USD & Euro ‘Me Too!’
It is getting downright giddy in Euro Land these days, just as NFTRH anticipated when we began writing about the effects of the strong US dollar/weak Euro dynamic back in Q4 of 2014. The Euro 50 have been out performing the S&P 500 (as expected) and the Union’s economy is burping up a positive trend. STOX5E vs. SPX Sentix Euro Zone Economic Index EZEI positive … Continue reading Europe Brightens
I have positions in both hedged and unhedged Europe, as you know. This was due to the (thus far incorrect) view that the USD would correct and the Euro bounce. Recall that in NFTRH 331 we noted USD’s weekly chart looked more like a bullish consolidation than a topping situation. It is over bought to be sure, and also over loved, sentiment wise. But the … Continue reading USD & Europe
On Feb. 12 we NFTRH+‘d Germany (and Europe in general) and assigned a target to EWG using a daily chart. Here is EWG weekly, trying to get through resistance after doing some good work. Key to this would be the currency relationships going on with Uncle Buck and the Euro. EWG would rather see a weaker buck than say, the hedged Germany fund DXGE. Same … Continue reading Germany iShares, Weekly
