high yield credit spreads

High yield credit spreads continue to rise

Rise in high yield credit spreads threatens recession A rising spread indicates disfavor toward junk bonds (oh so favored during speculative risk ‘on’ phases) and this behavior can eventually either grind its way toward economic recession or spike its way there (ref. 2020). Here is a longer-term view. Whether it grinds (2000) or spikes (2008 & 2020) a continued rise would eventually be a recession … Continue reading High yield credit spreads continue to rise

Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle

High Yield spreads are elevating And the message is not a happy one for the risk ‘on’ world, which is most of the investing world. Combine it with Gold/Silver, Gold/Copper and even Gold/SPX and you have a recipe for more pain; lots of it despite any bouncing the markets may do. And despite the fact that gold has not even gotten off its ample butt … Continue reading Credit Spreads ticking new highs for the cycle

indicators

Amid the noise, credit spreads continue to rise

High Yield credit spread hits its highest level since December, 2020 A feature of a weakening economy, not mention strengthening risk ‘off’ behavior is rising High Yield credit spreads. Junk bonds are out of favor as investors come to value safer liquidity over speculation and yield. Here is the longer view showing the spread’s rise into both Armageddon ’08 and the 2020 COVID crash. There … Continue reading Amid the noise, credit spreads continue to rise

Two important macro indicators remain intact

Junk-related credit spreads and inflation expectations remain tame and aloft, respectively Both of these indicators are intact to the inflation that the Fed created and by extension, the widespread speculation that the Fed also created and is trying to shove back in a box currently. As noted back December, the Fed is not directing markets but indicators like these are. It is not only status … Continue reading Two important macro indicators remain intact

The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this are…

The Fed, like the rest of us, is being directed by markets As shown in yesterday’s post the Fed is being directed in large part by the 2yr Treasury yield, which is rising to inform them they are lagging with respect to inflation fighting (ha ha ha, but work with me here). Other market indicators like credit spreads will actually tell the story of when … Continue reading The Fed is not directing the markets, but indicators like this are…