Gold & Silver CoT; the Goons Start to Unwind

Fear not my gold buggy friends, the goons have started the process of sanitizing the Gold and Silver CoT structures. Why, look at those large Spec longs bailing out and those Commercial shorts covering. The little (non-reportable) guy is actually playing contrary hero and adding gold while puking and shorting silver. I don’t make much of his actions. All in all a CoT report doing … Continue reading Gold & Silver CoT; the Goons Start to Unwind

Gold & Silver CoT, err… Displeasing

Gold very simply refuses to get a trend going from its high risk state by CoT sentiment. Also, open interest is higher than it’s been since the bull began. A little improvement last week and this week a retrench. The graph tells me that there’s a whack job out there somewhere ahead. It’s either that or the seasonal low is not going to arrive at … Continue reading Gold & Silver CoT, err… Displeasing

Gold and Silver CoT [w/edit]

Silver’s Commitments of Traders shows improvement again this week while gold’s CoT wallowed without much net change. Silver’s large specs continued to puke up the metal while the Commercials continued to cover shorts. As to gold, the already briskly over long little guy got even more so. The silver little guy reduced significantly (and he was already less than enthusiastic). Makes me start to favor … Continue reading Gold and Silver CoT [w/edit]

Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders

Today gold and silver got slammed and in preparation Commercial traders had bulked their modest net short positions and large Specs had bulked their modest net longs in gold as of Tuesday. Silver got gooned up with a noticeable lurch net short by the Commercials and a reduction in net shorts by the large Specs. The little guy increased his bullish stance in both metals … Continue reading Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders

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Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders

We have a lurch in a favorable direction this week as gold saw reduced Spec net longs (including the little guy) and net short covering by the Commercials. In silver the Specs and little guys net shorted last week while the Commercials made a net long move. And then wouldn’t you know the metals rammed upward yesterday. Funny how that works. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium … Continue reading Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders

Silver and Gold CoT: Spec Longs Puke, Commercial Shorts Cover

Positive changes in the CoT this week, especially in Silver where the goons are backing off while the large specs go the other way. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You can also keep up to date with plenty of actionable public content … Continue reading Silver and Gold CoT: Spec Longs Puke, Commercial Shorts Cover

Gold and Silver CoT Data Continue Toward Bearish Alignment

Again, it’s not a good timer, but it is a good risk vs. reward meter. The metals continue on their journey toward an unfavorable alignment. HUI has by the way, hit its short-term target of 220 and gold and silver lurked not far below theirs earlier today. Please don’t read too much into small, specific little posts like this. We had a long NFTRH update … Continue reading Gold and Silver CoT Data Continue Toward Bearish Alignment

Floating Path on CoT positioning

Once again I go fan boy and highlight another report from Floating Path. Having the economic and financial data that Nick aggregates in handy graphics is something that I find borderline titillating. See Investor Positioning Guidebook at Biiwii for a look into the CoT, across many different asset classes, like you’ve never seen it before. Also, keep an eye on Floating Path directly. I implore … Continue reading Floating Path on CoT positioning

Gold and Silver CoT

There are still analysts talking about the Commercial traders always being right in the end as if the CoT buildup has been some evil operation against gold.  It makes a good story but the reality is that higher prices are driven by speculators and hedgers (Commercials) hedge rising prices.  With the top taken off of gold’s froth over the last week, hedgers relaxed some net … Continue reading Gold and Silver CoT

Gold CoT Discussion

Excerpted from NFTRH 394’s 20 page review of the precious metals sector, which included the following segments… Part 2: Gold Miner Weekly Charts (AEM, GG, HL, ABX, KLDX, NGD, NEM, PAAS, PG.TO, PVG and SSRI), Part 3: Sector Indicators, Part 4: GDX, GDXJ, SIL, Gold & Silver Charts and Part 5: Sentiment/Seasonality. Detailed Gold Sector Update, Part 1: Commitments of Traders Beautifully presented Commitments of … Continue reading Gold CoT Discussion

Gold CoT Report; Hard Lurch Negative but…

…it will only matter when it matters.  Playing it straight, the speculative interests (big net long increase this week) are right as they always are while the current trend is in force.  That means the ‘specs’ are right much more often than not.  When this buildup in Commercial net shorting (big net short increase this week) finally coincides with a reversal speculators will then get … Continue reading Gold CoT Report; Hard Lurch Negative but…

NFTRH Gold CoT Analysis Affirmed

Jordan Roy Byrne and Steve Saville are people that I think are highly knowledgeable when it comes to gold and the gold mining sector.  So this is not a post taking a shot at anyone.  Jordan focuses nearly exclusively on the gold sector and in my opinion does a good job either being right, or getting right when adjustment is needed.  He moves forward without hype, bias or ego.  Steve Saville is more diversified and a real sharp pencil in the drawer in his own right.

This morning Saville highlights Jordan’s video discussion of the gold Commitments of Traders alignment and why it is not necessarily to be feared in the manner that a certain hyperbolic technical analyst out there (30,000 [CoT] coffins anyone?) would have enthralled gold bugs believe.  Jordan’s video is here.

I purposely keep my public writing about the gold sector limited because there is enough noise out there in this overly noisy segment of the market.  But in NFTRH, we have been noting that if this is a bull market (folks, it’s not technically confirmed no matter what the pompom brigade would have you think) that “bear market rules are different than bull market rules” and so it is very possible that the current bearish CoT does not have to mean anything near what it has meant during the 2011-2015 bear market.  Indeed, in my opinion the worst thing about it is not the net short Commercials or the net long Specs, it is the over bullish little guy (small Specs).

While having all due caution in the face of the negative CoT buildup, the graphs below and the comments after them were when we began speculating about a possible change to “bull market rules” with respect to the CoT.  We reached back to the start of the bull market early last decade for reference.  It should be noted that Jordan subscribes to NFTRH, I assume for its coverage of the overall macro markets.

I am trying to avoid sounding territorial, but in this racket sometimes it’s about not being too shy to toot your own horn.  Toot toot…

From NFTRH 384 on February 28:

If I may affix my tin foil hat for a moment, let’s recall that in 2012 as the Fed announced full on un-sanitized QE(3) to take over from the expiring Operation Twist, the precious metals complex exploded higher. Many, including myself thought this policy would prove bullish. But that view was wrong because the CoT said it was wrong.

Continue reading “NFTRH Gold CoT Analysis Affirmed”