Gold very simply refuses to get a trend going from its high risk state by CoT sentiment. Also, open interest is higher than it’s been since the bull began. A little improvement last week and this week a retrench. The graph tells me that there’s a whack job out there somewhere ahead. It’s either that or the seasonal low is not going to arrive at a nice, neat December time frame.
The reason I think that is that a trend to a low risk state takes time. A whack job hacks the price by 100 bucks (just pulling that number out of thin air; don’t freak out about it) and resets sentiment in a blaze of glory and blood as the lunatics come out telling stories to enthralled if butt hurt gold bugs why the evil forces do the evil that they do. In other words, ghost story time AKA masochist hour in the “community”.
Whatever happens, my gut tells me that gold’s low will arrive around the time that the stock market’s high arrives. But that’s a guy’s gut. There are plenty of other scenarios. (Source)
Silver is actually on a trend to a better CoT condition but it’s a slow process. Open interest is not extreme and this just looks like a lower risk – though incomplete – picture than that of gold at this time.
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