Not enough inflation. That's what the Fed is saying yet again. FOMC Statement "Inflation has continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in…
What, are you kidding me? I mean, sure, it's a pain in the ass listening to Bullard this, Yellen that, Rosengren this, Fisher that, Fischer this, Evans that... What ever…
As anticipated, August was a month full of Fed jawboning because it was a month without an FOMC meeting. I knew they would fill the void with an expectations management…
Why the tough talk out of one side of her mouth and 'other policy tools' language out of the other (ref. Yellen Lays Out Tools... )? Oh, I don't know. …
Approximately 15 seconds after FOMC whispered its latest sweet nothings to the asset markets it is propping, I posted the statement at Biiwii. In it they conceded that the economy…
Release Date: June 15, 2016
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
[edit] Ah, she just mentioned the high "debt to GDP levels" in the Q&A. Thank you sir! Point made. She just jawboned QE 4, which is why I decided to…
The opening segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole has a little fun with the post-FOMC market situation. Unfortunately, there is all too much reality in this clowning around. From NFTRH 387:
Our main theme has been that the ironclad post-2011 confidence in the Federal Reserve among conventional market participants would slowly but surely start to fade because macro parlor tricks, so vigorously employed by the Bernanke Fed, were only tricks or in some cases (Operation Twist) borderline magic, after all.
At biiwii.com (still unsure if or in what capacity the site may reappear) we used to have fun with clown car videos, as the various Fed members piled out honking horns, doing somersaults and shouting incomprehensible phrases and announcements.
Like Rosco’s clown car above, that is all fading away now. The pretense that the Fed is the steward of a sound financial system and currency has been stripped away. We are no longer anticipating a waning of confidence. In rolling over last week and playing dead, the Fed announced for all the world to see that it is no more secure or respectable than the clown known as ‘the Draghi’, Kuroda the Klown or the troupes in Canada, Australia, England and China’s Central Planning.
The US Fed, through no good work of its own was the beneficiary of a Goldilocks environment in which global economic pressures resulted in capital flight into the US.
Not only was there not a policy surprise – you know, in the face of recent commodity strength and those embedded services costs throughout the economy – but the Fed did not even talk tough, which I thought they might do. Maybe Yellen will wobble and speak out of both sides of her mouth at the press conference.
Here is the USD ETF flopping on the non-event.
Time to whip through this text and then start hitting buttons! Or not.
Release Date: March 16, 2016
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
Yesterday we reviewed the Scariest Chart in the World, an overly sensational tongue in cheek title for a chart that has bearish historical implications for the S&P 500. Here it…
I just discovered that one of my favorite data dumps, the St. Louis Fed, has a blog. It is now linked to the left as 'FRED Blog'. From FRED: FRED…
These moves were likely either sooner or later, and the FOMC's sorta kinda change of wording was just the accelerant needed. Uncle Buck is taking a break... ...and EUR/USD is…
So next week the drama will unfold once again on Wednesday as a bunch of interest rate manipulators make a "decision". The 2 year yield has been telling them since…