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Notable Public Posts

ZIRP Up Next?

Everyone expects Janet Yellen to be a rolling over, inflationist stooge just like they did Ben Bernanke.  Bernanke came on board after Alan Greenspan had taken the Fed Funds rate up to around 5% if I remember correctly.  Inflationists and gold bugs thought they had it in the bag when ‘Helicopter Ben’ assumed control.

Indeed, Bernanke did what he was supposed to do (per the ‘Helicopter ‘Ben’ script) as systemic stresses began to gather in 2007, addressing that pesky Funds rate, culminating in December, 2008’s official ZIRP (zero interest rate policy).  Here again is the chart showing the S&P 500’s ‘Hump #3’ attended by this most beneficial monetary policy.

spx.irx

As noted again and again, the much trumpeted ‘taper’ of QE is not only not a negative for the economy, we have made a strong case that its mechanics are actually a positive, in the near term at least.  But putting ZIRP on the table would be a whole different ball of wax.

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March 20, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Post FOMC: Precious Metals & Stock Market

Yellen Speaks

I had to go out for the rest of the day right after the FOMC release.  I came back to a fairly unsurprising mess in the precious metals, and a negative stock market. It turns out I missed the market’s little fit as Janet Yellen hinted that the Fed might raise the Funds rate a little sooner and a little more steeply than the market had anticipated.  A little.

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March 19, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD turned last week’s resistance to support, which is now being tested as Ukraine hype unwinds and FOMC looms.  This is a still bullish chart working off an over bought condition.

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March 19, 2014
Notable Public Posts

A Lender Carry Trade; an Old Theme Revisited

Excerpted from this week's premium report, NFTRH 282: Last June when tidbits about a would-be future ‘taper’ of T bond purchases (QE) were popping up in the media NFTRH 241…

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March 16, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Perspective on the Silver Divergence

It is interesting how sometimes a chart will do what it thinks it is supposed to do, even in the face of other information that says it should do something else.  Silver’s chart, as we have been noting, was supposed to test support and that is what it has been doing while the rest of the precious metals complex rises.

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March 14, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD is in consolidation at resistance.  It is bullish until proven otherwise.  Support is anywhere from the visual lateral support at 122 to the gap and moving average convergence around 125.

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March 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Uranium Buying Op Upcoming

It had been noted that I sold URG with some level of remorse.  Well that impulse is responsible for my having bought back part of the position today before it got to the noted support around 1.50.  That’s between URG and me.

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March 11, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Watch Semiconductors’ Market Leadership

In January of 2013 NFTRH used the Semiconductor sector as a 'canary in a coal mine' to a potential coming phase of US manufacturing strength and an economic bounce.  This…

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March 5, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD has reached the resistance that is the initial objective for the rally off the December bottom.  On its bull signal but at a logical point of consolidation or reaction.

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March 5, 2014
Notable Public Posts

4%

If the monthly chart of the COMP is to be believed, 4% is the ‘reward’ side of the risk/reward equation in tech stocks.  COMP could gobble that up in 3 days.

comp

Bulls have surely won.  The market has gone much higher than I for one thought it would when I got bullish on its prospects in late 2012.  Much higher; but then I am not a bubble chasing momo.  I am a conservative player with a negative view of the mechanics that have produced this bubble.  Still, there is no use denying its reality.

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February 26, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Brief Market Notes

The precious metals reaction is upon us.  We were prepared and I hope players adjusted in whatever way works best, even if just mentally.  We will work on support levels…

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February 26, 2014