NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD has reached the resistance that is the initial objective for the rally off the December bottom.  On its bull signal but at a logical point of consolidation or reaction.


SLV stopped exactly at anticipated resistance.  Key support is former resistance from the bottoming cluster.  SLV is bullish but in reaction mode.


GDX is consolidating at resistance on diminishing volume (bullish) and key support has been raised to the convergence area of the EMA 200 and the 50 day MA’s.  That area has had a lot of reaction points (green arrows).  A bullish looking situation, which is actually behaving quite mechanically and logically.


GDXJ is consolidating at resistance.  Support is 38 (+/-).


SIL reversed perfectly right within the resistance zone and has come to the first support level.  The volume that trust SIL up had a lot of conviction.  The volume on which it drifts now does not.  That is bullish.  13 (+/-) is a serious buy zone if it gets that low.


DBC has kept on going higher with two support levels noted.  What are commodities trying to tell us?  Bullish!  However, as noted in NFTRH many are over bought.


URA progressed through the bottoming pattern we had been following and has simply put on a bull show ever since.  This is by the way, the reason I am a bottom feeder.  Because the risk vs. reward on these things can be controlled.  Later, when the momo’s get into the game risk elevates.  All things being equal, the buy back on URA would be 16.50 to 17.


USO has done good enough work to load a target of 39 after holding support (former resistance).


UNG proved it was a better man than me once before.  I have taken another flier on it this week after a subscriber requested a look at the chart, a weekly version of which was posted publicly on Sunday.  I’ll hold it as long as 24 holds up but critical support is 23.


DBA was sold quite a while ago when it became over bought.  Now it is more over bought.  It is also very bullish because this is an impulsive move.  We’ll watch Agri for new buying opportunities in 2014.


TLT is on a bull signal.  Support is noted, with more support at the convergence of the 50 and 200 day moving averages.


SMH (introducing a key new ETF this week) is at the top of an intermediate trend channel but above the equivalent of the SOX’ 10 year resistance!  Hence, its inclusion this week because if the break holds, SOX/SMH would target significantly higher levels and have positive implications for stock markets.  So we will watch to see what SMH does, decline at the black channel line or rise from the green long term support line?


SPY remains bullish after the Ukraine hysterics served to refresh the markets for a bounce to new all time highs.


EZU is still on a bull signal but also still dealing with the resistance zone noted in the last ETF update.


EEM is on a bear signal even after bouncing hard from the downside target at 37.  Bear would snap to bull above 40.20 or so.


FXI remains bearish below the noted resistance line.


Bottom Line

  • Precious metals are in consolidation/reaction mode from logical resistance levels and look bullish beyond the reaction.
  • More and more commodities are becoming over bought.  A theme in NFTRH has been that these are led by the ‘outliers’, which had been ignored for so long, like Agricultural, Uranium and NatGas.  An open question is whether they are early movers to a coming inflationary cycle (rising costs effects) or just getting played in a rolling manner by big speculative interests.  Related side note; TSX Venture exchange has been very strong.
  • US stocks are still at ‘melt up or correct?’ decision point.  Semiconductor ETF is added this week as it could be a leading indicator and Semi’s have been important to the analysis for over a year now to varying degrees.  Global stocks are relatively weak, especially Emerging and China.