GLD is on a strong bull signal, but getting over bought as it heads toward the equivalent of gold 1340, our short term target. Over bought is seen in distance from EMA’s 10 and 20. A pullback would be normal.
SLV went from under performer to rally leader all in one big, over bought gulp. It can cool down here, but the signs are bullish beyond any coming corrective activity.
SLV vs. GLD made some nice progress but can encounter some turbulence at the red line. SLV-GLD would be expected to lead precious metals rallies (and indicate a continuing ‘inflation trade’).
GDX is over bought and entering a logical resistance point. The rally has been healthy and indicates a ‘buy the pullbacks’ regimen.
GDXJ is flat out bullish but over bought at a resistance zone. The green line shows a ‘no brainer’ buy area. The problem is that there is no guarantee it will be hit. But if it is…
SIL is bullish but became very over bought after leading silver’s excellent move.
DBC has gone full bull signal (CCI is currently at 543!) and is very over bought. Unless there is a massive reversal, the ‘inflation trade’ scenario is looking very good for at least a significant rally.
DBA went from over bought to very over bought. It is also bullish. Support is at and above the 200 day moving averages.
USO broke through resistance and created a higher high (to the December high) that we noted as important. Crude oil is bullish and not as over bought as some other items. USO now needs to confirm 36 as a support area.
URA remains bullish, is re-triggering MACD and as noted in the weekly report, has an objective of making a higher high to the January high. URA, unlike many commodities, is not over bought.
TLT is neutral as it continues to correct its January ramp. A rise above noted resistance puts TLT on watch for a new bull run.
SPY is neutral, as strange as that sounds with it just a whisker below all time highs. Volume stinks, yet SPY would go bull if MACD goes green.
EZU is now on a bull signal, but is at resistance.
EEM has bounced hard at downside target of 37. It is neutral to bearish below resistance (and the moving averages), but if it gets above it is going to get bullish very quickly.
FXI held support and is on a bounce. It is bearish below resistance and the moving averages but above them, it would gather bull potential just like EEM.
Bottom Line
- Precious metals are bullish but over bought. Expect volatility.
- Commodities are bullish but over bought. Expect volatility.
- US and European stock markets are repairing the January damage and are right on decision points, at resistance. Emerging markets and China are bearish but right at resistance. A move above this resistance changes the picture to bullish quickly.
