NFTRH Update, Ukraine & its Complications

Precious Metals

Understand that I am making no assumptions here because the analysis has been constructive on a continuing rally (or even cyclical bull market) for the precious metals sector.

But if history is any guide, conflicts like this have most often not been friendly to the sector beyond the day or two of highest intensity.  At the very least, people should not chase gold, silver or the stocks on days like today.  Not that we want to trivialize the conflict, but think of it as hype for the gold sector.  Hype rarely sticks as a lasting stimulus.

gdx

gdxj

GDX and GDXJ have popped but like silver, have not made new highs.  This while the headliner during global crisis, gold, has made new highs.

Stock Market

With respect to the stock market the same can be said in reverse, except that with the stock market the analysis has been on the fence as to whether it was ready to correct.  So its downturn today is coming at a logical point.

If I am going to be bearish on the market it will not be because of Ukraine.  It will be because the SOX is back below long term resistance, the NDX is dropping within the Reverse Symmetrical triangle, etc.  These were/are inflection or pivot points.

The ISM was by the way, pretty decent.  Manufacturing got a bump in new orders.  Prices remain elevated, so that is something to watch.  So it remains appropriate for the Fed to continue tapering out of the bond market, especially with bonds rising and doing their work for them.

They are bubble making because they are holding ZIRP.  The market may top out, but we have seen this movie before.  The global crisis hype could one day be looked back upon as more bullish fuel after a pause to refresh.  At the least, just as you shouldn’t buy precious metals on Ukraine, you shouldn’t sell stocks or short the market on it either.

Other reasons need to be validated for such actions.