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Note to public readers: This is not just a real time situation. NFTRH has been managing this situation for its premium subscribers in one form or another for all of 2026, after preparing for a much needed correction in the precious metals.

More recently, as you may know through public posts here, we planned for a bond market recovery and yield curve flattening (now in question) at the hands of the Bessent/Warsh tag team. So there is a lot of context and a lot of moving parts that have gone into being positioned favorably today.

Managing macro markets is a process, not a one day or one week thing. It takes a ton of patience and perspective.

Bonds & Stocks

It has been a long journey from the initial crack in the precious metals to today, as the precious metals finally enter correction extremis and the broader market follows.

As you know, I’ve had my tin foil hat on for much of the time I’ve been chronicling the Bessent/Warsh good cop/bad cop routine in the bond market. While I incorrectly thought yield curve signaling would more likely include a bullish stock market, that has not come to be.

But what has come to be is the Treasury bond rally, which it turns out, my tin hat says was the ultimate and overriding objective for the policy cops. Restore CONfidence in the good old US of A’s debt. Even if that confidence is force fed to the herds.

The yield curve has made a “bull” flattening of late. Although with stock market stress now in play we have a hint toward steepening as casino patrons flee to short-term Treasuries for safety (where I/we have been sitting all along). This drives short-term yields down relative to long-term yields, ticking the curve upward just lately.

Mission accomplished by the corpse-like, dead-eyed Bessent. Shove ’em all into bonds!

As a side note (because you know how I like opinionated side notes), I think Warsh also cakes on the makeup, giving him his own particular corpse-like look. What is up with these two?!?

Healthcare, our defensive sector of choice, is positive in pre-market. That includes BioPharma, which has been my personal choice.

The way the script goes is that if the stock market correction gets concerning enough, if enough lemmings get herded (do lemmings herd?) into T-bonds, the Fed will start making dovish sounds.

Here I interject the mid-terms, which are a wild card. I have no idea what this reality TV president is going to do. Nor the sycophants around him. So all we can do, market-wise, is look at market signals as usual.

Precious Metals

The precious metals are breaking down. That is not something to be feared. It is something that usually happens at the end of major corrections or bear markets. Silver, for example, had not yet put on a swan dive. Well, this morning silver has definitively cracked after clinging to the former support area it had slipped below by a teeny.

As you know, I have been hoping for this in order to take some calls on SLV. Now the trick is where to take them. But I’ll tell you one thing, speaking personally, it is far better to finally get on with it than to have that rotten fruit hanging there into perpetuity.

GDX is due to open (78.58 in pre) well above the targeted areas for a test of the lows, which are the (red) gaps at 76.12 and/or 71.61. This relative strength seems quite positive, given that it is earnings season and miners are reporting increased costs, as expected.

GDX/HUI could put on a swan dive at any time, but as of this morning, the GDX/GLD ratio is still intact to our original target. We may have a bullish clue in play. Let’s let the drama unfold and see what’s what.

I do know one thing. I am content not being short gold stocks and also content being short (SPXS)/bearish (UVXY) broader stocks.

Gold is cracking as well, holding the previous low by a whisker. As noted previously, a loss of this level would open up potential into the 3400s.

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Bottom Line

We have prepared for this moment. It is here.

NFTRH is in some ways like any other rag during those long stretches where nothing much is going on. Stocks grinding upward, precious metals limping downward or other such non-actionable phases. We manage that, but frankly it sucks.

It is the phase turns that I am invigorated by. Q4, 2008. Q1, 2020. That kind of thing. I love watching herds go over cliffs. I also love having a sturdy root to hold onto while they do their thing. That root is a ton of cash, UST equivalents, a couple bear positions and a relatively defensive sector.

But the main objective is to go that way when the herd is going this way. IMO that overwhelmingly favors the precious metals, with all due patience.