NFTRH+; Pictures (and analysis) from pre-market

The government is stepping in to bail out SVB depositors and the banks are still tanking. Graphic is linked to the article. As a side note, the government says that other banks, not taxpayers, will fund the bailout. Okay, I hear you talking… now let’s see what kind of proof comes out in the pudding of this mess.
  • Stock market futures are positive as the new narrative, compliments of Goldman Sachs, is that banking stress means no Fed rate hike next week. 29% of CME Group traders agree, while the rest look for .25%.
  • Gold is taking out the SMA 50 and as per NFTRH 748 that is positive, but let’s tap the breaks on any celebrations. Steady as she goes.

On the chart, RSI has ticked positive and I do like the look of the still negative MACD, which is trying to trigger up. But gold is at important resistance right here at the SMA 50. Until that is taken out last week’s excitement should be tempered. And even then, we should never get excited, eh?

ES (S&P 500 futures) is still grappling with short-term support in a thus far lame attempt to use ‘Fed relief’ as a reason to rally (+.08%).

2 year and 10 year Treasury notes are ramping to test their major daily downtrends. This sure is a jerk in the direction of our favored macro views.

USD (DXY) is pulling back to test its SMA 50 on the dovish implications regarding the Fed. However, let’s not forget the other reason the USD can rise (aside from supportive policy). That is if things get off the hook, cyclical markets re-enter the bear and USD gains a liquidity bid while the Gold/Silver ratio (itself easing slightly, but still well elevated) also rises impulsively.

Bottom Line

The counter-cyclical macro may well be engaging here and now, if something broke, which was always going to be the eventuality of the Fed’s hawk regime. As yet, limits are being tested.

We will need to keep a close eye on the heretofore calm stress indicators shown in NFTRH 748. If those start to kick in, and existing trends start to break the picture is going to change quickly. And it’s not going to change to inflationary. So we are on plan. Let’s see what the trends and indicators advise.