Just a quick snapshot to update the Continuum’s status. Please recall that we are looking for the yield to make a lower high to the 3.5% (actual: 3.45%) high of November, 2018.
Today’s tick has hit 3.3%. Got to love the markets, always pushing things to the limit.
The bottom line implication would be that a notable change in the macro could well happen this week, during the most obsessed upon FOMC meeting, maybe ever. Nobody is looking for a deflationary episode other than the US dollar and the Gold/Silver ratio. The alternative to that is full on inflationary crack-up-boom with yields getting out of control.
I continue to lean to an unwinding of the inflation trades, including yields. But all I can do is update the macro pictures, get a box of popcorn and like everyone else, watch it unfold.