Silver & Gold CoTs tick the wrong way

Silver and Gold Commitments of Traders as of October 19

Silver has been in a good contrarian sentiment setup by its CoT structure and from that a rally sprang as the whole sector was in the sentiment dumps in September. But it remains to be seen whether that was the sentiment low or just a sentiment low. Last week silver’s CoT saw large specs eat the rally and commercial hedgers fade it. This is what will happen all along a rally, but again it remains to be seen whether the ultimate low was put in already.

What I do know is that the setup in silver and its recent leadership was a good signal that the bounce in PM complex could be bigger than previous ones since the spring, and that it has.

Gold’s CoT was middling at best to begin with and degraded further. With the rally over the last few days (since the 10.19 CoT data cutoff) the CoT structures have almost certainly worsened from this snapshot.

That’s all I got. I don’t want to rain on a perfectly fine gold bug parade, but the CoT is what it is.

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