As the CRB index (monthly) pokes through long-term resistance at 185…
…copper (daily) pokes a new high in its cyclical bull market.
The monthly chart is a reminder that there is resistance at the 4.15 +/- area.
This as inflation expectations continue to rise.
It is now nearly a year-long trend toward inflation and by extension, commodities.
Long-term yields are up again this morning and the long bond’s yield is poking through the 2% caution zone and is now at 2.1%. I see no reason not to stick with the original plan that calls for a rise in the Continuum to the next and more intense caution zone beginning at 2.5% as the potential limiter (red dotted monthly EMA 100, currently at 2.7%) declines toward that area.
I originally drew the blue ‘Fed zone’ many months ago when the majority were still thinking deflation. Now they are thinking something quite different and so regardless of whether the limiter breaks and it’s “inflation all the way, baby!” this time or a failure of it, caution will be warranted until we get the answer.
For now, however, it appears that Garth can party on with Wayne and the inflation trades for a while longer.
