Down the Rabbit Hole [w/ edit]

[edit] A very worthwhile thread on Twitter per a response to this post.

It’s disclaimer time once again.

  • I am a recovering borderline prepper. Not a Unibomber shack dweller, but I did the wood stoves for alternative heating, the long-term food stuffs for alternative eating, the generator, the clean water access (a well), the organic gardening, the handgun. The gold.
  • I did these things around 15-17 years ago. A lunatic, but not really. I still consider each of these things ‘good to have’.

I began the now-defunct (but it is what it is) in 2004 because I was was virtually terrorized by information I thought I knew as I dropped down into my own personal rabbit hole in 2003, after being very bearish in 2001-2003. But a funny thing happened; the stock market refused to go to the hell I thought it belonged in and really wanted it in. Alan Greenspan saw to that with his funny munny creation machine (it was what it was… and it was bullish because it devalued the munny stocks and other assets were denominated in).

Of course, gold was more bullish and that put a lie to stocks. But my point here is about the terror that I felt and more importantly, believed. That is because I was influenced heavily by a figure who commanded a small group of other lunatics (I considered it then and still do, a cult).

The only character you’ve probably heard of is Chris Martenson, who was already a card carrying member of the group when I arrived down the hole and who has gone on to a career in prep for the masses (i.e. fear mongering lite), where there are personal solutions to the ongoing emergency (and speaking of emergencies, what is Jim Kunstler saying these days about the “Long Emergency”, with a world awash in oil?). Both of these guys, the latter of whom I used to take a little seriously, were part of the Pickensian PEAK OIL!!! tout as that bubble prepared to burst in 2008.

But I digress. I go to 321gold this morning because I always want to see what the gold bugs are thinking for contrary indications at any given time and I find linked there:

Getting Positioned for the Worst Depression in the History of the World…

Clive, if you’re gonna write it, I am gonna highlight it because it is right in the wheel house of what created me, circa 2003. I am not going to copy any of the colorful and scary quotes here. But you know what they’re about. Gold, silver, guns, monetary slavery and a prep list A-Z.

There is nothing whatsoever wrong with being prepared. But this should be market analysis, not emotion. All I can tell you is that in 2004 I started thinking ‘eff you’ (in a nice way actually, because I liked the guy) to the cult leader and in 2005 I simply went away, based on what I saw to be true, not what a group of people imposed upon me to believe true. I realized it was culty and I chose life, rather than perpetual fear (and tin foil).

But again I state that the various preps for a less secure future than past are good ideas in my opinion. But what is not a good idea is the fearful emotion that the above link is steeped in. In 2002 I was still a newbie, trying to figure it all out. Younger people (or very old people for that matter, who’ve not changed) who have not been burnished by (or learned from) experience as I have may find emotions getting out of hand as the COVID-19 crisis and associated monetary malpractice (panic) by central banks take root in a society that just 6 months ago thought the National Football League was something of vital importance.

I’ve been down this rabbit hole for going on 2 decades now. I named a market service after it and that is because yeah, things are funky at best. But in that funkiness, 90-something % of what you read will be wrong. That 90% includes the mainstream media pap we are routinely fed in order to harvest our alternately fearful and greedy eyeballs on a daily basis and it includes the smaller niche media where, using the link above as an example, an almost word for word playbook from 2003 indicating the imminent emergency, that has for 17 years* simply not yet happened.

The bottom line is as it has been in all that time. Sure, be prudent, be conscious but also be aware that most of us are vulnerable to our own emotions and worst fears. That has no place in market management whatsoever. You have to be a cold mother fucker to do this right, regardless of whether or not “the truth is out there”.

* And that is just my experience. Lunatics even more experienced than I may have significantly more historical data points to work with.