NFTRH; Ref. April 24 update, risk view updated

In the update on April 24 we noted:

On the VIX chart above 30 looks like better support than the current 35. That would project SPX to the old Bull Turnstile at the 3000 area.

Here is the updated chart that went with the above. VIX has just about ticked the next support area at 30 and SPX is within hailing distance of 3000 (which includes the daily chart’s SMA 200). Also, in a public post yesterday we noted that SPX has already retraced 62% of the correction, a legitimate termination point.

spx & vix

I’d have preferred to make this update against a positive market, but the futures are negative. The market is entirely capable of using a day of negativity to propel itself up to the 3000 target but in looking at my own situation it is time to start thinking about preserving gains. My holdings don’t tend to be reflective of the S&P 500 but gains are gains and anything can be sold (except core gold miner positions) in service to holding on to the vast majority of gains to date in 2020. Then I’ll evaluate.

The downside target of 2030-2100 (or at least a ‘higher low’ retest of the March correction) is still very possible.