There is an alternate stock market scenario

Look, I have a target of SPX 2030-2100 to end the bear. That would be a healthy 50% Fib retrace of the entire inflated bull market out of March 2009.

spx

But the voices demanding a bear are coming into my inbox (including from two of my best pals out here on the interweb pipes) and are coming at me non-stop from the mainstream media.

You can click the graphic to get the bearish word from smart guy Cam Hui and others. See that word that begins each article? Opinions, they are like assholes, everyone’s got one. Especially those who got whipsawed by the crash and intense follow-up rally like the amalgamated mainstream media.

I have thought that Mr. Hui is a level headed man. But in his (I assume new) role as mainstream financial media pundit, he sure does make for a sensational headline.

As for the other opinion pieces, newsletter pitch man Nigam Arora lays out a plan for why the stock market is going to fail imminently. And there’s contrarian wise guy (said with a level of affection people, work with me; I am something of a contrarian wise guy too) Mark Hulbert using Goldman Sachs’ bullish flip as a contrary bear signal (complete with a picture of a nasty looking bear heading the article).

It’s the mainstream media. Remember that. Remember also that when I write a post like this it is written by a guy with a downside target for SPX that could reach 2030 (or even lower); and that target was established before COVID-19 became a thing, before the market even topped. But the demanding tones of the bearish input I get personally as well as through the media is a bullish caveat to my own view.

My plan is to continue to do as the market instructs, but be ready for when the media starts to FOMO the herds, advising why it actually is bullish. Then, you know the drill.

There is an alternate stock market scenario however, as the Fed/Treasury cheapen the (funny) munny that the stock market is denominated in. Why the hell do you think I call this a casino and you and I casino patrons? If all goes well, I plan to do some profit taking this week because I have earned them. But the media is a market tailwind, not a headwind. They. Are. Always. Wrong. when the headlines are the most strident.

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