3 Metallic Amigos, Live Futures

The cyclical Amigo, the counter-cyclical Amigo and the cross dresser Amigo.

A weekly chart works best to make the point that copper is still struggling to hold critical support at the neckline of its ugly pattern. If held it will have been an ugly pattern that did not actualize, as all-too often happens. If lost, there is a lot of hot air to 2.20/lb.

Copper and its Industrial bros continue to be a bad signal for the cyclical global macro.


Speaking of ugly patterns, we had noted that gold (daily chart) was in a “minor” H&S. Nothing to really worry about, as the metal had needed to cool down. But as we noted in NFTRH 571, it has morphed that scenario into what could be a short-term downtrend channel, AKA bull flag. That could make a monkey out of my analysis for even a minor H&S. That’d be fine as this is still a downward consolidation. Gold is trying to take back the SMA 50, which is a key point before a would-be attempt to break the flag.

It has not yet ended its consolidation/correction, but is acting logically counter-cyclical this morning compared to the stock market’s woes.


Silver (daily chart) harpooned our original target of 18.70, immediately re-thought that, and dropped in 3 waves down to our favored pullback target, which was the 50% Fib pullback area and/or 17.25. It has taken back the SMA 50 this morning. Should the correction go deeper, the 62% Fib, the rising SMA 200 and major support await down in the 15.90 to 16.40 range. But silver has done a lot of good downside work when you consider how hysterical it threatened to get back in late August.

Both gold and silver have pulled back on declining volume, which is what a future bullish view wants to see.


Amigos to market participants: “Counter-cyclical winds are blowing”.

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