The 30 year Treasury bond yield hit an extreme last month and is the last man standing in the way of a deflationary event of some kind. Confusingly, it is also a primary man standing in the way of an inflationary event of some kind.

For decades TYX has pinged up and down to and from the 100 month EMA (limiter) and if it is to produce yet another ping the place to start will have been that green dashed line. 2.2% is the 1st obstacle.

Meanwhile, as we took pains to note, gold could be vulnerable at the beginning of such a turn because of its status anti the 30 year yield and and pro the long bond (weekly chart, click for clearer full size view).

Another view (monthly)…

Meanwhile, the inflation gauges continue to bounce a bit (daily chart).

As logically, do Industrial Metals vs. Gold.

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