Here are the daily and weekly futures charts for each Amigo (the cyclical Amigo, the counter-cyclical Amigo and the cross-dresser Amigo).
We review these metals as the media schleps all over itself trying to tell people why the Fed will cut 1/4, will cut 1/2, should not cut at all and/or why the president of these United States of America is on Twitter haranguing the Fed to be as disreputable as Mario Draghi and China’s central planners because they know how to play the game. It’s all a game after all, isn’t it Trump? You old currency warrior, you.
Copper daily is nesting on the SMA 50 but locked below resistance and the SMA 200. Still in bounce mode but very unspectacular.
Copper weekly still look pretty gross. It’s above critical support but locked below a ton of resistance. The 2016-2019 pattern also looks like a freak. I refuse to like industrial metals (or cyclical commodities in general) until I get some technical reason to like them.
Look at gold cheer whatever it thinks it sees this morning. It paints my short-term caution on the metal as the product of a 98 lb. weakling with knees knocking. Whatever, it’s all good. But 1350 to 1380 is in play, although if this pre-FOMC spurt proves real it is coming from a no longer strenuously overbought situation. I just don’t like the media noise surrounding that gorilla that is poised to render a “decision” in 1 day, 4 hours, 48 minuts and 15 seconds.
Weekly gold is the very picture of bullish. We called 1378 the bull/bear line for years and if my eyes do not deceive, it’s over 1378, overbought or not. Gold… it is what it is.
Last but never least is silver. It broke its trend line (black dots) and it made its higher high. It is still very overbought on the explosion up from its former nest at the now up-turned moving averages. Here too I’ve got short-term caution, which is a lot different than being anywhere even in the same zip code as bearish.
That long weekly candle that drove it from 15+ to 16+? That was an impulse and it was bullish. The rest – including the volatility to come – is noise.
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