2 for the Bears

[edit] Thanks again WordPress for the weird title saving glitch at the time of posting. It’s starting to piss me off.

I was invited to join an email group by Michael Pollaro a few months ago after he subscribed to NFTRH. If you remember Michael’s blog at Forbes then you remember an authority on Austrian economics and money supply. The list includes other analysts and writers you’ve heard of.

Anyway, I was called that most nasty thing by one of these gentlemen. That nasty thing was bullish. :-(

As I made clear, I am bullish insofar as the market’s internals and indicators say to be bullish. This rally is running with increasing risk as we’ve noted weekly in NFTRH.

Here’s Dumb Money running the show. Get this; the stock market is contrary bearish (strenuously over bullish). Get this as well; such conditions can persist longer than you might find convenient to nice and neat, black and white analysis. I shared this with my bearish pen pals. From Sentimentrader

But I was still labeled bullish, so I also shared this. It’s probably the most bearish thing I can find for the stock market (SPX shaded in the background). Another would be the yield curve but sorry bears, inversion doesn’t count. It’s a turn to steepening (which is stubbornly holding out) that brings the changes (and even there, if the change is inflationary a pervasive bear view may not work out).

Anyway, the 2yr yield is diverging the Fed Funds Rate and the the 3 month T Bill as it did in 2000 and 2006-2007. It did so to a degree as well in 2016 but that was minor and at the beginning of the Funds Rate cycle. Today’s situation has marinated well and is ready to roast… if/when the market pronounces itself willing.

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