A collective “Hello Gary”.
Hello, folks. I cannot really say that I am a recovering stock market gambler because at least I have seen it for what it is and even label you, me and a world of black boxes, quants, algos, substance abusers, Ma & Pa and anyone participating “casino patrons”. So, I understand its nature.
Still, I write publicly and professionally and I have written “2600-2650” for the bounce target for SPX and in-day today at least (and likely beyond) I am officially wrong in that target.
This will serve as yet another notice that there is no guru here and there is no desire to predict outcomes here. All there is here are probabilities laid out in advance to either be confirmed or negated. This one looks like it is going to be negated.
The stock market is not nearly out of the woods when looking beyond the very short-term. That battle will be fought another day at an area we are now managing (you can guess it with little more than a cursory look at the chart). But for today, it looks like my best bounce plan is going to have to take its ball and go home. :-(
To any other stock market analysis wise guys out there I highly recommend you do as I have done on occasion and write publicly if not proudly “I WAS WRONG”. It is kind of therapeutic, actually. And it keeps you from ever thinking about joining that sleazy club of well-marketed goons known as market gurus.
Disclosure: I have been significantly more long than short due to the fact that I fully expected this bounce and wanted to see it fail before proclaiming that favored plan a success. Well, it isn’t.
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