While the odds of SPX declining to 2100-2200 have increased greatly, I think the combination of deplorably bearish sentiment and the seasonal (yes, I am still giving that some consideration) and the short-term oversold situation on SPX are reasons to be guarded if you are short. But then again, as stated frequently, I am not a resolute or very good short seller.
The Daily chart of SPX shows what could have been at least short-term climactic volume as the index has lost key support and filled a sneaky little gap from September 2017 at an area that has some lateral support. Rightly or wrongly, I think I am going to cover my SPY short (now by far my largest position) for a very acceptable 9% profit and manage more through cash for a while. At least that’s the plan.
Click the chart for a full view (I’ve used a larger chart than usual for a clearer view of the gap).