NFTRH; US Headline Indexes; Straight TA (priority: medium)

I can’t emphasize enough how important it is for us to be open minded to future outcomes even while having favored views. We’ve done a lot of work on the internals (some of which have been fading) but let’s go straight (daily) technical here.

The Dow is pushing a limit at the top trend channel line and lateral resistance. It would be more comfortable for a bear case, obviously, for it to hold here. Otherwise it could get overtly bullish out there.


SPX is interesting in that it filled the January 30th gap, dropped, found support above the SMA 50, realized it had left a gap down, reversed and popped to fill it. SPX status is unchanged from its still in process top-test, as noted in NFTRH 513.


NDX has been in a much more pronounced uptrend but failed to make a higher high before fading to test the lower channel line and the SMA 50. That made me a bit suspicious (and part of why I shorted QQQ), but as of now the trend is intact and it is bullish. The momentum indicators and AROON are rolling over, however.


Finally, a look at the SOX. If NDX is a leader, SOX is usually the leader’s leader and it is getting more bearish. In fact, if one is looking for a short setup, this looks like a classic one as the index bounces to the SMA 200.