As we ping back and forth between the summer cool down (w/ potential liquidation) and the view of a resumption of the inflation trades I want to make a point here that trends in US stock markets are intact. While I tried a short on the small caps and there are negative signs within the cycle leading Semiconductor sector, there is a reality still in … Continue reading NFTRH+; Not bearish
US markets are testing the short-term support zones as illustrated in NFTRH 625. SPX is settling into the first projected support zone at the EMA 20 and just above the rising SMA 50. It’s almost as if the market looked for and found an excuse (du jour in the media) to drop to and test this level yesterday. NDX dumped to its EMA 20 as … Continue reading NFTRH+; US Stock Market (daily TA)
Why again do I not have the constitution to be a perma-bear? Dow counts 27805 reasons as it breaks through the EMA 20 and SMA 50. SPX has taken out the same two moving averages, which we have noted as key to keeping a correction scenario going. It is eyeballing a gap at the resistance of the lost February high. Take that out and then … Continue reading NFTRH+; US Stock Market Technical Status Update
This is one for the ages, this relief rally that is knocking on the door of becoming something more, all the while driving a lot of people absolutely nuts. That is because it is taking its own sweet time in declaring itself to be something more than a bounce or alternatively, making clear a bounce is all it is. Human with the active brain goes … Continue reading NFTRH; 3 US Headline Indexes (high priority)
Over the years I’ve harped on about this. The media tout “DEATH CROSS” in fearsome headlines and then voila, a hard bounce happens to punish anyone who knee-jerked in response to said media alarm. Here’s the Dow doing just that this month after December’s alarm. However… a cross of a shorter-term moving average below a longer-term average does mean something and it ain’t bullish. Only … Continue reading Dow “Death Cross!!”… Case Closed
The S&P 500 turned down just below the 200 day moving average, the Dow broke above its SMA 200, turned down but is now testing it as support, and NDX found resistance at its SMA 200 after hitting and failing to clear it. The reason I did not prefer a ‘V’ type bounce in order to be an intermediate-term bull is pretty obvious. There was … Continue reading NFTRH; US Headline Index Status: INDU, SPX & NDX (medium priority)
I can’t emphasize enough how important it is for us to be open minded to future outcomes even while having favored views. We’ve done a lot of work on the internals (some of which have been fading) but let’s go straight (daily) technical here. The Dow is pushing a limit at the top trend channel line and lateral resistance. It would be more comfortable for … Continue reading NFTRH; US Headline Indexes; Straight TA (priority: medium)
Yesterday’s hard reversal of Tuesday’s bullish move was an unpleasant development for the bulls but this morning, plucky as ever, they are back at it trying to bull the market again (SPX +13.50, NDX +27.50, Dow +87).
Recall that we were using the EMA 20s (orange dotted line on SPX and blue lines on NDX and Dow) as a key for the short-term. On Tuesday SPX and Dow popped above the EMA 20 but the NDX stopped right at it. NDX is a leader.
Continue reading “NFTRH; US Stock Market Technical Situation”
Reference a public post about momentum leader, the Biotechs, looking to go lower.
Fellow momentum leader SOX is potentially double topping…
Amidst an economic backdrop in the US that continues to very gently decelerate, we have a celebration of what was perceived by the market as a dovish Fed. Anxiety had been rising about a coming Fed Funds rate increase because after all, 1 to 30 year yields had been rising all along the curve and humans being what we are, the trend was extrapolated in … Continue reading Market Update
Well, here came the short covering rally in the precious metals. By calling it that I don’t mean that it cannot turn into something more, but today was most assuredly driven by short covering as the US dollar unwound some of its speculative sponsorship. One can assume that large speculators took it on the chin on both ends, in the USD and in gold/silver as the Commercial traders had been aligned increasingly bearish and bullish, respectively.
A brief update on the headline US markets, namely the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
Beginning with the latter, we note that Mark Hulbert’s Nasdaq newsletter writer sentiment data shows a very bearish sentiment profile, which is contrarian bullish.
