NFTRH+; US Stock Market Technical Status Update

Why again do I not have the constitution to be a perma-bear? Dow counts 27805 reasons as it breaks through the EMA 20 and SMA 50. SPX has taken out the same two moving averages, which we have noted as key to keeping a correction scenario going. It is eyeballing a gap at the resistance of the lost February high. Take that out and then … Continue reading NFTRH+; US Stock Market Technical Status Update

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NFTRH; 3 US Headline Indexes (high priority)

This is one for the ages, this relief rally that is knocking on the door of becoming something more, all the while driving a lot of people absolutely nuts. That is because it is taking its own sweet time in declaring itself to be something more than a bounce or alternatively, making clear a bounce is all it is. Human with the active brain goes … Continue reading NFTRH; 3 US Headline Indexes (high priority)

Dow “Death Cross!!”… Case Closed

Over the years I’ve harped on about this. The media tout “DEATH CROSS” in fearsome headlines and then voila, a hard bounce happens to punish anyone who knee-jerked in response to said media alarm. Here’s the Dow doing just that this month after December’s alarm. However… a cross of a shorter-term moving average below a longer-term average does mean something and it ain’t bullish. Only … Continue reading Dow “Death Cross!!”… Case Closed

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NFTRH; US Headline Index Status: INDU, SPX & NDX (medium priority)

The S&P 500 turned down just below the 200 day moving average, the Dow broke above its SMA 200, turned down but is now testing it as support, and NDX found resistance at its SMA 200 after hitting and failing to clear it. The reason I did not prefer a ‘V’ type bounce in order to be an intermediate-term bull is pretty obvious. There was … Continue reading NFTRH; US Headline Index Status: INDU, SPX & NDX (medium priority)

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NFTRH; US Headline Indexes; Straight TA (priority: medium)

I can’t emphasize enough how important it is for us to be open minded to future outcomes even while having favored views. We’ve done a lot of work on the internals (some of which have been fading) but let’s go straight (daily) technical here. The Dow is pushing a limit at the top trend channel line and lateral resistance. It would be more comfortable for … Continue reading NFTRH; US Headline Indexes; Straight TA (priority: medium)

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NFTRH; US Stock Market Technical Situation

Yesterday’s hard reversal of Tuesday’s bullish move was an unpleasant development for the bulls but this morning, plucky as ever, they are back at it trying to bull the market again (SPX +13.50, NDX +27.50, Dow +87).

Recall that we were using the EMA 20s (orange dotted line on SPX and blue lines on NDX and Dow) as a key for the short-term.  On Tuesday SPX and Dow popped above the EMA 20 but the NDX stopped right at it.  NDX is a leader.

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NFTRH; Multi-Market Update

Well, here came the short covering rally in the precious metals.  By calling it that I don’t mean that it cannot turn into something more, but today was most assuredly driven by short covering as the US dollar unwound some of its speculative sponsorship.  One can assume that large speculators took it on the chin on both ends, in the USD and in gold/silver as the Commercial traders had been aligned increasingly bearish and bullish, respectively.

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