Beware Uncle Buck

We have not checked in on the US dollar for a while, other than as part of last week’s monthly ‘big picture’ post showing Uncle Buck at long-term support. Here is the updated chart.

usd

The daily chart has Unc holding the SMA 50 for several days now. MACD is on an up trigger, RSI has ground its way to 50+, AROON is still down trending (in line w/ the declining SMAs 200 & 50) but ADX shows that the downtrend may be exhausting with -DI a bit above +DI and the ADX line having flattened out.

usd

More importantly, commercial hedgers (courtesy of Sentimentrader) are just about as flat as they ever get. *

usd hedgers

And the public is bouncing back a bit from vigorously over bearish, but still very negative on the buck. The stock market’s recent whipsaw may have scared some of the public into USD’s liquidity haven.

The sum of all of the above? Larry says “KING DOLLAR!”

But we can just say that it is a fairly high risk situation for US dollar bears (and Euro bulls) right now.

* They are hedgers after all, not one-way speculators.

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