Look, I am not trying to predict anything. The new buzz phrase I find myself clobbering NFTRH subscribers with lately (and not just with the bond market) is about not putting the cart before the horse. Let him pull it, because he’s good at it and he will either pull the cart to a bond market breakdown and new bear market or he won’t. But until the decades old trends break, it’s not yet a bear market no matter the smart people coming out of the woodwork to the contrary.
So at worst, 10yr & 30yr bonds still have a place as a portfolio balance to risk ‘on’ and pro-inflation positions. And if they go down, they pay increasing income (income that is competing with the stock market’s dividend yields).
In 2016 everybody ran to bonds amid US ZIRP and global NIRP. How did that work out? They got punched in kisser with a big A. Then Bloomberg announced “RIP Bond Bull Market” which we lampooned (correctly) here. So of course, next up was B. So then we got bearish on bonds as this Amigo targets 2.9% and voila, here we are at around what could be a coming C, with the yield a hair under 2.9% (hint: these things often over shoot). Unsurprisingly the public is bearish again.
Maybe the Bond King is right this time, but… carts and horses.
You may think I am picking on the “Bond King” and so I am (Ray Dalio now, too). I don’t like how the media promote these stars and then you never hear later about the $Billions lost cumulatively around the world at the behest of these loudly broadcast bad calls. I have not heard the Bond King publicly refute that title, so… he is a media star and this website does not respect media stars simply for being broadcast. I assume readers who don’t like that just move along because I can be a bit untoward (AKA an a-hole), but that’s the way of things. The world turns.
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