Semiconductor Sector Indicators Led the Correction

Amid the sick theater that has been the US political sphere and by extension, the stock market, I just tried to stay unbiased (in action, at least) and churn the indicators.

Here is when we put a negative scenario (not only for the stock market, but also for the ‘as good as it gets’ economy) on watch in an NFTRH update.

amat, lrcx & smh

amat, qqq, lrcx

Here is when it started breaking down, per another NFTRH update.

And here was the most recent view from yesterday’s NFTRH 485, which also included a segment on the Semi sector and it’s cyclical implications.

There is much more to the story from a big picture cyclical standpoint. I make fun of the spray tanned stock market cheerleader (I am not unbiased, in thought) on Twitter, but this is serious business. I covered Semi related shorts today (too soon of course) on LRCX, BRKS and SOXL, but that is me, a faulty trader. But I am definitely in excitement and engagement mode now.

Me the macro market guy is trying to get things squared away with respect to the 3 Amigos (especially the long-term Treasury yield limiters), the appropriate time to seriously entertain the 4 Horsemen and what this all means for a nation of numb nuts who voted for a TV star cartoon character, put him in office, cheered the backwardation of America in some respects and then saw their newly opened eTrade accounts get not only a haircut, but a scalping into the brain matter.

From NFTRH 484 a little over a week ago (by way of Sentimentrader)…

Also in NFTRH 484, I added this chart to make a further point with all the subtlety of a sledge hammer.

All I can say is this is going to be interesting. And no, I am not particularly bearish. I think this event is addressing the true believers in the Trump fiscal reflation. What I am is working on determining where to be focused, because if we are on the cutting edge of a counter-cycle there will most definitely be places to focus and dopes with darts will no longer make money just by showing up.

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