Have I Turned Into a Contrary Indicator?


I am the one after all with all the red arrows on a chart I call the continuum, aren’t I? My view is that the odds are that this will not be the time we go full frontal von Mises and Crack the Boom up. Just to be clear. The question is and has been, will rates rise to the limiter amid bond-bearish and inflationary hysterics? Well, the media are getting busy on that even as you and I have this little conversation.


We looked at some hysterical bond-bearish headlines in the previous post. That is indeed contrarian stuff. But I want to be really clear here; I expect a rise in interest rates (and inflation hysterics), if it continues to gain momentum, to terminate right around 3.3% on the long bond’s yield.

Back in the spring of 2011 the clown at lower right below unwittingly called the top in rates (bottom in bonds) when he shorted the long bond right at the limiter! So when I see a sharp knife in the drawer named Kevin Muir (Macro Tourist) pointing out the contrarian aspects of today’s headlines I feel a need to try to be as clear as possible. With ya Kev, just not necessarily on the timing.

bill gross

I swear the media are like poison for the average person. Whether amplifying the likes of Gartman, Gross, Dent or Casey, they regularly churn out trend following and/or after-the-fact chasing headlines for casual readers to consume… and eventually get steam rolled by.

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